QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
California Resources CRC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $104.91+100%
- Market Value
- $54.09price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.22
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 25% below its 52-week high (May 5), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) −1.6% of market cap since the high.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) −1.6% of market cap since the high), others slipped (revenue −12.9%, revenue growth rate −37.2 pts, earnings per share turned to a loss). The price is 25% below its 52-week high.
The price is 25% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −12.9%, revenue growth rate −37.2 pts, earnings per share turned to a loss.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.7B → $3.2B (−12.9%)changed
- Revenue growth rate+14.7% → −22.5% a year (−37.2 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 monthsturned to a losschanged
- Free cash flow, 12 months$543M → $385M (−29.1%)changed
- Operating margin16.3% → −1.7% (−18.0 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding+2.2% (more shares, each owns less)about the same
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−1.6% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Energy)stock −25%, sector median 0% since May 5changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −25%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −21% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 11.3× at the high → 12.2× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($70.13, May 5) the price assumed about −3%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($43.55, Dec 22) about −12%; today about −2%. The last 3 years delivered 20%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 20%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $70.13May 5 | $43.55Dec 22 | $52.54 |
| Implied growth | −3% | −12% | −2% |
| P/E | 16.9× | 9.6× | n/a |
| P/FCF | 11.3× | 6.7× | 12.2× |
| EV/Sales | 2.0× | 1.2× | 1.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.7%; bull = 8.5% and 12.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CRC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CRC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.22
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.09
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.07
How it ranks
Where CRC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate100% · price below our base caseTop 9%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield8.2% · free cash flow vs market capTop 17%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 31%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−22% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 1%of 1,814
- Operating margin−1.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 10%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−0.9% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 8%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $104.91 · MV $54.09 · FCF value $83.84
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 10.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.31 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 10, 2026. Net debt $1.2B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $104.91, 100% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.2% (price / FCF 12.2×): $385M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.9% ($138M paid over 12 months).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.4×, below the 1.8× median for the 74 Energy companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 16.3% in FY2025 from 28.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -0.5× over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales growth slowed to −22% over the last 12 months, from 11% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityLost $121M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Balance sheetDebt rose 138% to $1.3B from FY2023 to FY2025.
All fundamentals
FCF yield 8.2% · ROE -4% · Sales −22%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 12.2×
- FCF yield
- 8.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.8×
- Price / sales
- 1.47×
- Price / book
- 1.38×
- Market cap
- $4.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −22.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.25
- EPS growth, last FY
- −10.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- −$121M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- −1.7%
- Net margin
- −3.8%
- FCF margin
- 12.1%
- Return on equity
- −4%
- Return on invested capital
- −1%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $56M
- Total debt
- $1.3B
- Net cash
- −$1.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.38×
- Interest coverage
- -0.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $385M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −23%
- Dividend yield
- 2.94%$138M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $69M1.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From California Resources’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +33%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin47%
- Return on invested capital29%
- Return on equity−4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+33%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $52.54
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$43.55−17.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$52.54you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 13$54.09+3.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$70.13+33.5%
- Fair value est.base case$104.91+99.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days −4.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CRC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on California Resources in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.