QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Crescent Energy Company CRGY
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 14%, top 4% of the 1145 we measure
- #23 furthest below its fair value estimate of the 1314 we value
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $35.05+160%
- Market Value
- $13.70price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.41
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.4%; bull = 8.5% and 7.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CRGY’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 5%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CRGY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.41
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.12
How it ranks
Where CRGY stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 4 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate160% · price below our base caseTop 2%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield14% · free cash flow vs market capTop 4%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 48%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+34% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 13%of 1,814
- Operating margin28% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 14%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital8.8% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 42%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $35.05 · MV $13.70 · FCF value $44.90
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 5.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.93 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Nov 2, 2026. Net debt $4.7B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 14.3% (price / FCF 7.0×): $816M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $35.05, 160% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
GrowthSales grew 34% to $4.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 3.8×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 28% over the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 91.6× vs a 15.9× median for the 73 Energy companies we cover.
Balance sheetDebt rose 226% to $5.5B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.7B, 83% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 6.4% in FY2025 from 13.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $149M paid vs $62M of net income.
All fundamentals
P/E 91.6 · FCF yield 14.3% · ROE 1%
Valuation
- P/E
- 91.6×Energy median 15.9×
- Price / FCF
- 7.0×
- FCF yield
- 14.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 3.8×
- Price / sales
- 1.19×
- Price / book
- 1.11×
- Market cap
- $5.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $10.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +33.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +5.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $62M
- Net income growth
- +164%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 27.8%
- Net margin
- 1.3%
- FCF margin
- 17.0%
- Return on equity
- 1%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $6M
- Total debt
- $4.7B
- Net cash
- −$4.7B
- Debt / equity
- 0.92×
- Interest coverage
- 3.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $816M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +4%
- Dividend yield
- 2.62%$149M paid
- Payout ratio
- 240%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $358,0000.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $168M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Crescent Energy Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +55%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield14.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin62%
- Operating margin54%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+55%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $13.47
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.75−42.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$13.47you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 15$13.70+1.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$15.37+14.1%
- Fair value est.base case$35.05+160.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days −3.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CRGY is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Crescent Energy Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.