QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Salesforce CRM
Not in a dip by our rules: 14% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate, 6% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $428.58+87%
- Market Value
- $244.66price −6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.40
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $229.17
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$150.12−34.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$229.17you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 26$244.66+6.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$266.23+16.2%
- Fair value est.base case$428.58+87.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 9.8% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 7.8%; bull = 8.5% and 11.8% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CRM’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CRM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.40
- Volatility
- 48% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.04
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $428.58, 87% above the price.
ValuationP/E of 19.5× is 60% below its own average of 49.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
Cash returnsShare count down 14.7% in a year: $35.1B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.1% (price / FCF 12.4×): $15.2B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 6.3% below its Market Value of $244.66, the average price paid since the Aug 26 filing.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 53% to $14.4B from FY2024 to FY2026.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.0×, above the 0.4× median for the 88 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 10%, below the 17% median for the 82 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Salesforce in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 19.5 · FCF yield 8.1% · ROE 19%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.5×3-yr-end avg 49.3× · Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 12.4×
- FCF yield
- 8.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 21.1×
- Price / sales
- 4.28×
- Price / book
- 4.90×
- Market cap
- $188Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $216B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $43.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.8%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $10.92
- EPS growth, last FY
- +22.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $9.7B
- Net income growth
- +45%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 77.3%
- Operating margin
- 19.9%
- Net margin
- 22.0%
- FCF margin
- 34.5%
- Return on equity
- 19%
- Return on invested capital
- 10%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $11.4B
- Total debt
- $39.3B
- Net cash
- −$27.9B
- Debt / equity
- 1.02×
- Interest coverage
- 8.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $15.2B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +21%
- Dividend yield
- 0.81%$1.5B paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $35.1B18.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −14.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $3.7B
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Salesforce’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $428.58 · MV $244.66 · FCF value $456.83
Assumes 9.8% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 9.8% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $18.46 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 27, 2026. Net debt $27.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days −7.8%
The business
FCF $15.2B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$15.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin34%
- Gross margin77%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital10%
- Return on equity19%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when CRM fires a reversal signal
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