QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
SAP SE ADS SAP
Not in a dip by our rules: 11% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $165.28−30%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −11%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.61
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $235.02
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$146.38−37.7%
- Fair value est.base case$165.28−29.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$235.02you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$263.96+12.3%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.6%; bull = 8.5% and 9.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SAP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SAP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.61
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.07
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 91% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 26.1% in FY2025 from 18.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 18%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Balance sheetNet cash of $7.4B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $165.28, 30% below the price.
Balance sheetDebt rose 40% to $1.8B from FY2023 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 7.7% over the last 12 months, below the 18% median for the 163 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 7.6% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 11% median for the 162 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on SAP SE ADS in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 34.3 · FCF yield 3.4% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 34.3×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 29.2×
- FCF yield
- 3.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 6.68×
- Price / book
- 5.52×
- Market cap
- $276Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $269B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $41.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.10
- EPS growth, last FY
- +130.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $8.0B
- Net income growth
- +129%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 72.9%
- Operating margin
- 26.1%
- Net margin
- 19.5%
- FCF margin
- 22.9%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- 18%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $9.2B
- Total debt
- $1.8B
- Net cash
- $7.4B
- Debt / equity
- 0.04×
- Interest coverage
- 19.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $9.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +91%
- Dividend yield
- 1.12%$3.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 38%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.2B0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From SAP SE ADS’s SEC filings, reported in EUR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $165.28 · FCF value $187.54
Assumes 7.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.6% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $8.04 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from EUR at 1.123), from the 20-F filed Feb 26, 2026. Net cash $528M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days −1.3%
The business
FCF $9.2B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$9.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin23%
- Gross margin73%
- Operating margin27%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when SAP fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on SAP or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.