QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Home Furnishings
CSW Industrials CSW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 18% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $294.36+3%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −18%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.41
4 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 18% below its 52-week high (Aug 11), but the business held up: revenue +7.3%, free cash flow +23.0%, revenue growth rate +1.8 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +7.3%, free cash flow +23.0%, revenue growth rate +1.8 pts), others slipped. The price is 18% below its 52-week high.
The price is 18% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.2B → $1.3B (+7.3%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+27.7% → +29.5% a year (+1.8 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$7.39 → $7.81 (+5.7%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$144M → $177M (+23.0%)held up
- Operating margin16.5% → 16.9% (+0.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−0.2% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Industrials)stock −18%, sector median −8% since Aug 11held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −18%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +7% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 39.8× at the high → 26.4× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 30, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($351.29, Aug 11) the price assumed about 20%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($238.11, Nov 4) about 13%; today about 12%. The last 3 years delivered 7%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 7%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $351.29Aug 11 | $238.11Nov 4 | $287.03 |
| Implied growth | +20% | +13% | +12% |
| P/E | 47.6× | 27.9× | 36.8× |
| P/FCF | 39.8× | 27.3× | 26.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.6%; bull = 8.5% and 14.6% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, CSW’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 13%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much CSW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.41
- Volatility
- 44% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.41
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.33
How it ranks
Where CSW stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate3% · price below our base caseTop 43%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.8% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 48%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.6% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 40%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+30% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 16%of 1,814
- Operating margin17% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 36%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $294.36 · FCF value $167.94
Assumes 12.6% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.6% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.87 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $727M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 30% to $1.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 3.0% in a year: $149M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 21% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 13% a year over the last three fiscal years, above the 4.3% median for the 257 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 15.6% in FY2026 from 20.1% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 20% to $6.70 in FY2026.
ValuationP/E of 36.8× vs a 26.5× median for the 220 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.4%, below the 1.1% median for the 188 Industrials companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 36.8 · FCF yield 3.8% · Sales +30%
Valuation
- P/E
- 36.8×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 26.4×
- FCF yield
- 3.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.74×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $4.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +29.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.80
- EPS growth, last FY
- −20.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $128M
- Net income growth
- −11%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 42.1%
- Operating margin
- 16.9%
- Net margin
- 10.2%
- FCF margin
- 14.1%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $177M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +21%
- Dividend yield
- 0.40%$19M paid
- Payout ratio
- 15%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $149M3.2% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026. From CSW Industrials’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity11%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $287.03
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$238.11−17.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$287.03you are here
- Fair value est.base case$294.36+2.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$351.29+22.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days −3.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
CSW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on CSW Industrials in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.