QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Building Products
Griffon GFF
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 3% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 9% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 15% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $104.31at the price
- Market Value
- $95.90price +9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −3%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.30
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 3% below its 52-week high (Aug 7), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 3% below its 52-week high.
The price is 3% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($107.22, Aug 7) the price assumed about 3%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($66.79, Nov 17) about −5%; today about 3%. The last 3 years delivered 163%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 163%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $107.22Aug 7 | $66.79Nov 17 | $104.13 |
| Implied growth | +3% | −5% | +3% |
| P/E | 27.0× | 43.3× | 26.3× |
| P/FCF | 16.3× | 10.3× | 15.8× |
| EV/Sales | 2.3× | 1.7× | 2.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GFF’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GFF moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.30
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.46
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.33
How it ranks
Where GFF stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate0% · price below our base caseTop 45%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield6.3% · free cash flow vs market capTop 28%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield3.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 37%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+29% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 16%of 1,814
- Operating margin17% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 34%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital23% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 19%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $104.31 · MV $95.90 · FCF value $166.16
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.58 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $1.2B, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 29% to $2.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.3% (price / FCF 15.8×): $297M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 42.0% in FY2025 from 35.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 23%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 17% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 74% to $1.09 in FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt is 9.8× shareholders’ equity.
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationPrice / book of 36.4×, above the 3.4× median for the 237 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 8.6% above its Market Value of $95.90, the average price paid since the Aug 19 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 26.3 · FCF yield 6.3% · ROE 185%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.3×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 15.8×
- FCF yield
- 6.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.0×
- Price / sales
- 1.84×
- Price / book
- 36.40×
- Market cap
- $4.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $5.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +29.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.90
- EPS growth, last FY
- −74.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $179M
- Net income growth
- +156%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 41.3%
- Operating margin
- 17.4%
- Net margin
- 7.0%
- FCF margin
- 11.6%
- Return on equity
- 185%
- Return on invested capital
- 23%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $110M
- Total debt
- $1.3B
- Net cash
- −$1.2B
- Debt / equity
- 9.81×
- Interest coverage
- 5.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $297M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +17%
- Dividend yield
- 0.83%$39M paid
- Payout ratio
- 22%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $141M3.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $29M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Griffon’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.3%
- Gross margin41%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital35%
- Return on equity228%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.4×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $104.13
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$66.79−35.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 19$95.90−7.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$104.13you are here
- Fair value est.base case$104.31+0.2%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$107.22+3.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +6.6%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 18
- DateWed Nov 18
- Consensus EPS$1.59
- Year-ago EPS$1.54
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GFF is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Griffon in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.