QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Auto parts
Dorman Products DORM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 6% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 6% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $180.02+29%
- Market Value
- $130.91price +6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.73
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 6% below its 52-week high (Aug 4), but the business held up: free cash flow +25.7%, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.8% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +25.7%, net cash (cash minus debt) +0.8% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (earnings per share −7.4%). The price is 6% below its 52-week high.
The price is 6% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −7.4%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($147.80, Aug 4) the price assumed about 8%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($100.50, Apr 6) about 20%; today about 3%. The last 3 years delivered 171%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 171%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $147.80Aug 4 | $100.50Apr 6 | $139.33 |
| Implied growth | +8% | +20% | +3% |
| P/E | 20.2× | 15.1× | 20.6× |
| P/FCF | 20.7× | 40.9× | 15.5× |
| EV/Sales | 2.2× | 1.6× | 2.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 7.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.1%; bull = 8.5% and 9.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DORM’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DORM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.73
- Volatility
- 35% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where DORM stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate29% · price below our base caseTop 30%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield6.5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 27%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+2.2% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 19%of 1,814
- Operating margin13% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 46%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital12% · profit per dollar of capitalTop 44%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $180.02 · MV $130.91 · FCF value $178.41
Assumes 7.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 7.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.02 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 27, 2026. Net debt $274M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $180.02, 29% above the price.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 155% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.5% (price / FCF 15.5×): $269M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 42.1% in FY2025 from 35.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 3.0% in a year.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 2.2% over the last 12 months, below the 6.7% median for the 376 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 13%, below the 16% median for the 332 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 12.9×, above the 12.3× median for the 230 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationTrades 6.4% above its Market Value of $130.91, the average price paid since the Oct 26 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 20.6 · FCF yield 6.5% · ROE 13%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.6×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 15.5×
- FCF yield
- 6.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.9×
- Price / sales
- 1.91×
- Price / book
- 2.66×
- Market cap
- $4.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $4.4B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +7.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $6.71
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $202M
- Net income growth
- −18%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 41.1%
- Operating margin
- 13.3%
- Net margin
- 9.3%
- FCF margin
- 12.4%
- Return on equity
- 13%
- Return on invested capital
- 12%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $167M
- Total debt
- $441M
- Net cash
- −$274M
- Debt / equity
- 0.28×
- Interest coverage
- 10.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $269M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +155%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $23M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 26, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 26, 2026. From Dorman Products’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin41%
- Operating margin17%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity13%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.9×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $139.33
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$100.50−27.9%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 26$130.91−6.0%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$139.33you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$147.80+6.1%
- Fair value est.base case$180.02+29.2%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 73 · 5 days +11.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
DORM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Dorman Products in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto parts
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.