QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Major Chemicals
Dow DOW
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 17% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 4% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $85.83+147%
- Market Value
- $33.51price +4%
- Off 52-wk high
- −17%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.38
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $34.70
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$20.95−39.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$33.51−3.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$34.70you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$41.87+20.7%
- Fair value est.base case$85.83+147.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, DOW’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much DOW moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.38
- Volatility
- 42% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.12
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.14
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 15.6% (price / FCF 6.4×): $3.9B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $85.83, 147% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.0% ($1.0B paid over 12 months).
ValuationPrice / book of 1.6×, below the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $894M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 20 points in two fiscal years, to -16% in FY2025.
GrowthSales shrank 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetNet debt of $13.4B, 53% of the market cap (Sep 30, 2026).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Dow in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Major Chemicals
All fundamentals
FCF yield 15.6% · ROE -5% · Sales +4%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 6.4×
- FCF yield
- 15.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.59×
- Price / book
- 1.56×
- Market cap
- $25.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $38.6B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $42.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −11.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.29
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$894M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 11.1%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- −2.1%
- FCF margin
- 9.2%
- Return on equity
- −5%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.1B
- Total debt
- $17.5B
- Net cash
- −$13.4B
- Debt / equity
- 1.08×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.9B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 4.00%$1.0B paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Dow’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $85.83 · MV $33.51 · FCF value $77.47
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -11.1% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.42 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 23, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 76 · 5 days +6.4%
The business
FCF $2.2B · Sales +13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin5%
- Gross margin11%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity−6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+13%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
DOW is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.