QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Ecopetrol EC
Not in a dip by our rules: 6% below its 52-week high.
A quality company. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.25
3 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $17.19
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$9.21−46.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$17.19you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$18.26+6.2%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for EC: the model gives 228% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 18% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.25
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.08
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.06
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 31338.0%: $11,125.0B of free cash in the last 12 months on a $36B market cap.
GrowthSales grew 36% in the latest quarter vs a year ago.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
RiskReports earnings Nov 10 (consensus EPS $0.62): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ecopetrol in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
from SEC filings
No fundamentals for Ecopetrol: Latest SEC XBRL statements end 2024-12-31, too old to use. We show nothing rather than guess.
Valuation details
FCF value $134,675
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 49 · 5 days −3.4%
The business
FCF $11,125.0B · Sales +36%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$11,125.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield31338.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin36%
- Operating margin27%
- Return on invested capital15%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+36%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.9×
Next report
Nov 10
- DateTue Nov 10, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.62
- Year-ago EPS$0.31
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when EC fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on EC or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.