QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
eBay EBAY
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $90.58−26%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.67
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $121.64
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$79.41−34.7%
- Fair value est.base case$90.58−25.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$121.64you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$122.91+1.0%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 4.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 2.3%; bull = 8.5% and 6.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EBAY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EBAY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.67
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.24
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.16
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 46% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 58% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 25%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.0% in a year: $2.1B of buybacks over 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $90.58, 26% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 26.3× is 78% above its own average of 14.7× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 19.4×, above the 12.8× median for the 113 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 12.5×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 4.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on eBay in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 26.3 · FCF yield 4.4% · ROE 46%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.3×3-yr-end avg 14.7× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 22.8×
- FCF yield
- 4.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.4×
- Price / sales
- 4.45×
- Price / book
- 12.49×
- Market cap
- $55.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $59.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $12.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +15.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +4.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.60
- EPS growth, last FY
- +10.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.1B
- Net income growth
- −3%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 72.2%
- Operating margin
- 20.3%
- Net margin
- 16.9%
- FCF margin
- 19.5%
- Return on equity
- 46%
- Return on invested capital
- 25%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.2B
- Total debt
- $5.1B
- Net cash
- −$4.0B
- Debt / equity
- 1.16×
- Interest coverage
- 10.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +58%
- Dividend yield
- 0.99%$546M paid
- Payout ratio
- 26%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2.1B3.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $670M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From eBay’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $90.58 · FCF value $135.97
Assumes 4.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 4.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.32 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net cash $316M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 65 · 5 days +0.2%
The business
FCF $2.4B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin72%
- Operating margin20%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity46%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when EBAY fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on EBAY or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.