QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
MercadoLibre MELI
In a deep dip: 31% below its 52-week high.
A quality company, 9% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $1,783price −9%
- Off 52-wk high
- −31%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.04
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $1,625
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$1,547−4.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$1,625you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 10$1,783+9.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$2,361+45.3%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for MELI: the model gives 365% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MELI’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MELI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.04
- Volatility
- 40% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.33
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.23
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 15.1% (price / FCF 6.6×): $12.4B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 46% to $35.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 39% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 8.9% below its Market Value of $1,783, the average price paid since the Sep 10 filing.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 31% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetDebt rose 105% to $9.2B from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 44.2× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 44.5% in FY2025 from 50.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 11.1% in FY2025 from 14.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $9.41): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on MercadoLibre in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
All fundamentals
P/E 44.2 · FCF yield 15.1% · ROE 28%
Valuation
- P/E
- 44.2×3-yr-end avg 59.0× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 6.6×
- FCF yield
- 15.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 22.4×
- Price / sales
- 2.34×
- Price / book
- 10.51×
- Market cap
- $82.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $87.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $35.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +46.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +38.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $36.76
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Net income growth
- −9%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 42.7%
- Operating margin
- 8.3%
- Net margin
- 5.3%
- FCF margin
- 35.3%
- Return on equity
- 28%
- Return on invested capital
- 16%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $5.7B
- Total debt
- $10.6B
- Net cash
- −$4.9B
- Debt / equity
- 1.36×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $12.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +68%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $2M0.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From MercadoLibre’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
MV $1,783 · FCF value $5,986
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 30 · 5 days −10.3%
The business
FCF $12.4B · Sales +50%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$12.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield14.7%
- Free-cash-flow margin35%
- Gross margin43%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity28%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+50%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.5×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$9.41
- Year-ago EPS$8.32
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when MELI fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on MELI or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.