QualityDipStocks / Energy · Oil & Gas Production
Texas Pacific Land TPL
Reversal signal fired on the Oct 30 close; 39% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 6% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $144.34−56%
- Market Value
- $354.20price −6%
- Off 52-wk high
- −39%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.39
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $331.68
- Fair value est.base case$144.34−56.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$273.56−17.5%
- Stopfrom the Oct 30 signal$325.64−1.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$331.68you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$354.20+6.8%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$539.79+62.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.1%; bull = 8.5% and 8.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, TPL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 21% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much TPL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 3.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.39
- Volatility
- 49% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.10
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.09
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 75% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 37% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 21% to $898M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 39% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
SetupReversal signal fired: R2 · Reversal candle at value on the Oct 30 close at $331.68.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $144.34, 56% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 42.3× vs a 16.2× median for the 43 Energy companies we cover.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 74.2% in FY2025 from 77.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 6 points in two fiscal years, to 33% in FY2025.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Texas Pacific Land in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Oil & Gas Production
All fundamentals
P/E 42.3 · ROE 37% · Sales +21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 42.3×3-yr-end avg 42.4× · Energy median 16.2×
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 25.51×
- Price / book
- 13.69×
- Market cap
- $22.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $898M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.84
- EPS growth, last FY
- +6.1%
- Net income, 12 months
- $541M
- Net income growth
- +17%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 74.9%
- Net margin
- 60.3%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 37%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $249M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 253.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.68%$157M paid
- Payout ratio
- 29%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $8M0.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $17M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Texas Pacific Land’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $144.34 · MV $354.20 · FCF value $29.35
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 6.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.63 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Capex: equipment and other real estate (company tag).
Setup & signals
Signal fired
- R2 · Reversal candle at value Oct 30 close$331.68
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 42 · 5 days −1.9%
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +31%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin8%
- Gross margin86%
- Operating margin75%
- Return on invested capital32%
- Return on equity37%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+31%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.3×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$2.35
- Year-ago EPS$1.76
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when TPL fires a reversal signal
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