QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Aerospace
Embraer EMBJ
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 6% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $115.05+53%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.61
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the low ($53.82, Jun 10) about 1%; today about 7%. The last 3 years delivered 4%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 4%/yr (free cash flow)
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $53.82Jun 10 | $75.32 |
| Implied growth | +1% | +7% |
| P/E | 28.0× | 39.2× |
| P/FCF | 14.4× | 20.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, EMBJ’s free cash flow would need to grow about 7% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much EMBJ moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.61
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.50
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.41
How it ranks
Where EMBJ stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 4 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate53% · price below our base caseTop 21%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield5% · free cash flow vs market capTop 40%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+18% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 28%of 1,814
- Operating margin8% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 37%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $115.05 · FCF value $231.22
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 18.6% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.73 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, 4 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Mar 30, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $115.05, 53% above the price.
GrowthSales compounded 19% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 18% to $7.6B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.0% (price / FCF 20.2×): $683M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 8.0% in FY2025 from 6.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.0× over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 39.2× vs a 26.5× median for the 220 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 18%, below the 33% median for the 211 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $0.87): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
RiskSwings hard: beta 1.61 vs the S&P 500 and 41% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
All fundamentals
P/E 39.2 · FCF yield 5.0% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 39.2×Industrials median 26.5×
- Price / FCF
- 20.2×
- FCF yield
- 5.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 1.82×
- Price / book
- 4.00×
- Market cap
- $13.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +18.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +18.6%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.48
- EPS growth, last FY
- 0.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $352M
- Net income growth
- −0%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 17.5%
- Operating margin
- 8.0%
- Net margin
- 4.6%
- FCF margin
- 9.0%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.9B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 1.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $683M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +2%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Embraer’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $1.7B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin4%
- Gross margin18%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital75%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $75.32
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$53.82−28.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$75.32you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$79.89+6.1%
- Fair value est.base case$115.05+52.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +6.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3
- Consensus EPS$0.87
- Year-ago EPS$0.30
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
EMBJ is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Embraer in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Aerospace
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.