QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Elastic ESTC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 14% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- ROE 33% and more cash than debt
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $102.91+13%
- Market Value
- $93.84price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.25
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 14% below its 52-week high (Oct 28), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 14% below its 52-week high.
The price is 14% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.8B → $1.8B (0.0%)about the same
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.59 → $3.59 (0.0%)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$349M → $349M (0.0%)held up
- Operating margin−2.6% → −2.6% (0.0 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding0.0% (unchanged)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)0.0% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Technology)stock −14%, sector median −5% since Oct 28held up
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −14%, revenue/EPS/FCF median 0% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 32.0× at the high → 27.4× now (shown, not scored)
No new report since the high (Oct 28, 2026): the business numbers are the same as then, so this read is capped at 65. Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($106.58, Oct 28) the price assumed about 16%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($43.30, Apr 10) about 5%; today about 13%. The last 3 years delivered 114%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 114%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $106.58Oct 28 | $43.30Apr 10 | $91.34 |
| Implied growth | +16% | +5% | +13% |
| P/E | 29.7× | n/a | 25.4× |
| P/FCF | 32.0× | 17.9× | 27.4× |
| EV/Sales | 5.7× | 2.3× | 4.8× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ESTC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ESTC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.25
- Volatility
- 58% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.27
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.25
How it ranks
Where ESTC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Not in the top quarter on any of these 6 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate13% · price below our base caseTop 37%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield3.7% · free cash flow vs market capLowest 46%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 36%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+16% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 32%of 1,814
- Operating margin−2.6% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 9%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital−9.2% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 3%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $102.91 · MV $93.84 · FCF value $82.39
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 17.6% a year FY23–FY26; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.34 a share (trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 28, 2026. Net cash $890M, not added.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $102.91, 13% above the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −1.9% in FY2026 from −10.3% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet cash of $890M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jul 31, 2026).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 33% over the last 12 months, up 20 points in two years.
GrowthSales compounded 18% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only -1.9× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLoses money at the operating line: −3% operating margin over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of −9.2%, below the 12% median for the 134 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 7.4×, above the 5.9× median for the 261 Technology companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 25.4 · FCF yield 3.7% · ROE 33%
Valuation
- P/E
- 25.4×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 27.4×
- FCF yield
- 3.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anegative EBITDA
- Price / sales
- 5.30×
- Price / book
- 7.37×
- Market cap
- $9.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $8.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +16.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +17.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.50
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $376M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 75.5%
- Operating margin
- −2.6%
- Net margin
- 20.8%
- FCF margin
- 19.4%
- Return on equity
- 33%
- Return on invested capital
- −9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.5B
- Total debt
- $571M
- Net cash
- $890M
- Debt / equity
- 0.44×
- Interest coverage
- -1.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $349M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +11%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $380M4.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $303M
Trailing 12 months to Jul 31, 2026; balance sheet at Jul 31, 2026. From Elastic’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +15%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.7%
- Gross margin76%
- Operating margin−1%
- Return on invested capital−2%
- Return on equity33%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+15%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $91.34
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$43.30−52.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$91.34you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 27$93.84+2.7%
- Fair value est.base case$102.91+12.7%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$106.58+16.7%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days −14.1%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 19
- DateThu Nov 19
- Consensus EPS$0.14
- Year-ago EPS($0.06)
- QuarterOct/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
ESTC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Elastic in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.