QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Full Truck Alliance YMM
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 33% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 34% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 11%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $19.88+128%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −33%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.04
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, YMM’s free cash flow would need to stay flat for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much YMM moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.04
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.37
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
How it ranks
Where YMM stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate128% · price below our base caseTop 5%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield7.4% · free cash flow vs market capTop 21%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield2.4% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 46%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+11% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 44%of 1,814
- Operating margin33% · of sales kept as operating profitTop 9%of 1,288
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $19.88 · FCF value $145.58
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 22.9% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.64 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from CNY at 0.1499, 20 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 14, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 33.2% in FY2025 from 11.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 63.0% in FY2025 from 51.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $19.88, 128% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationP/E of 13.8× vs a 33.0× median for the 220 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.4% (price / FCF 13.5×): $674M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 11% over the last 12 months, from 23% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
All fundamentals
P/E 13.8 · FCF yield 7.4% · Sales +11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 13.8×Technology median 33.0×
- Price / FCF
- 13.5×
- FCF yield
- 7.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 4.87×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $9.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +22.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.21
- EPS growth, last FY
- +40.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $661M
- Net income growth
- +44%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 63.0%
- Operating margin
- 33.2%
- Net margin
- 35.3%
- FCF margin
- 36.0%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $674M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +55%
- Dividend yield
- 2.34%$214M paid
- Payout ratio
- 32%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $5M0.1% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $42M
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025. From Full Truck Alliance’s SEC filings, reported in CNY and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $6.0B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$6.0B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin47%
- Gross margin87%
- Operating margin44%
- Return on equity10%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA−5.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $8.72
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.54−13.5%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$8.72you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$13.08+50.0%
- Fair value est.base case$19.88+128.0%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days +4.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 19
- DateThu Nov 19, before the open
- Consensus EPS$0.19
- Year-ago EPS$0.12
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
YMM is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Full Truck Alliance in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.