QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Other Specialty Stores
FirstCash FCFS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $80.88−55%
- Market Value
- $181.02at the price
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.71
4 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $181.25
- Fair value est.base case$80.88−55.4%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$148.05−18.3%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$181.02−0.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$181.25you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$236.43+30.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 14.6% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.6%; bull = 8.5% and 16.6%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FCFS would need a return on equity of about 31% a year; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FCFS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.71
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.25
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.25
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
GrowthSales grew 23% to $4.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 29% to $7.42 in FY2025.
Cash returnsShare count down 2.6% in a year: $277M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 18% over the last 12 months, up 4 points in two years.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $80.88, 55% below the price.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.9%, below the 1.7% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on FirstCash in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Other Specialty Stores
All fundamentals
P/E 19.1 · ROE 18% · Sales +23%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.1×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Price / sales
- 1.81×
- Price / book
- 3.42×
- Market cap
- $7.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $10.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +22.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $9.24
- EPS growth, last FY
- +29.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $406M
- Net income growth
- +31%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 9.5%
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $203M
- Total debt
- $2.4B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a lender
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0.95%$74M paid
- Payout ratio
- 18%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $277M3.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $21M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From FirstCash’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $80.88 · MV $181.02 · FCF value $324.46
Financials model (residual income): book value $54.59 a share on Sep 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 14.6%, the average of 17.6% for the trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026 and 11.6% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 81% of earnings (dividends 18% + net buybacks 63%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Oct 26, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 34 · 5 days +4.9%
The business
FCF $0.6B · Sales +18%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin14%
- Gross margin57%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital11%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+18%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
FCFS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.