QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Other Specialty Stores
Ulta Beauty ULTA
Not in a dip by our rules: 9% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate, 13% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $520.24−19%
- Market Value
- $565.25price +13%
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.53
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $640.43
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$450.75−29.6%
- Fair value est.base case$520.24−18.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 27$565.25−11.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$640.43you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$706.82+10.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.7%; bull = 8.5% and 8.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ULTA’s free cash flow would need to grow about 10% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ULTA moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.53
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.19
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.09
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 46% over the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 4.5% in a year: $1.2B of buybacks over 12 months.
GrowthSales grew 11% to $13.0B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 21% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $520.24, 19% below the price.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 15 points in two fiscal years, to 41% in FY2026.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 12.4% in FY2026 from 15.0% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 22.8× is 12% above its own average of 20.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationTrades 13.3% above its Market Value of $565.25, the average price paid since the Aug 27 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ulta Beauty in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Other Specialty Stores
All fundamentals
P/E 22.8 · FCF yield 4.2% · ROE 46%
Valuation
- P/E
- 22.8×3-yr-end avg 20.3× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 24.0×
- FCF yield
- 4.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.13×
- Price / book
- 10.43×
- Market cap
- $27.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $13.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.2%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.7%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $27.46
- EPS growth, last FY
- +1.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Net income growth
- +1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 39.3%
- Operating margin
- 12.5%
- Net margin
- 9.3%
- FCF margin
- 8.9%
- Return on equity
- 46%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $213M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +21%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.2B4.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 1, 2026. From Ulta Beauty’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $520.24 · MV $565.25 · FCF value $664.71
Assumes 6.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.7% a year FY23–FY26), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $26.69 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 1, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 27, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days +2.6%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield4.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin9%
- Gross margin39%
- Operating margin13%
- Return on invested capital43%
- Return on equity46%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ULTA fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ULTA or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.