QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Industrial machinery
Simpson Manufacturing Company SSD
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 8% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $183.84−5%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −8%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.86
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $193.34
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$158.00−18.3%
- Fair value est.base case$183.84−4.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$193.34you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$210.06+8.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.3%; bull = 8.5% and 5.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, SSD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much SSD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.86
- Volatility
- 29% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.38
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 187% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.9% (price / FCF 17.0×): $468M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 19%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 19% over the last 12 months.
Balance sheetNet cash of $158M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
Top bearish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales grew 3.3% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 6.1% median for the 179 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.6%, below the 1.7% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Simpson Manufacturing Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrial machinery
All fundamentals
P/E 21.0 · FCF yield 5.9% · ROE 19%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.0×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 17.0×
- FCF yield
- 5.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.0×
- Price / sales
- 3.28×
- Price / book
- 3.75×
- Market cap
- $7.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $9.13
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $379M
- Net income growth
- +15%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 45.8%
- Operating margin
- 20.6%
- Net margin
- 15.6%
- FCF margin
- 19.3%
- Return on equity
- 19%
- Return on invested capital
- 19%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $451M
- Total debt
- $292M
- Net cash
- $158M
- Debt / equity
- 0.14×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $468M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +187%
- Dividend yield
- 0.60%$48M paid
- Payout ratio
- 13%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $159M2.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $26M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Simpson Manufacturing Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $183.84 · FCF value $283.97
Assumes 3.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.3% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.40 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net cash $158M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 67 · 5 days +4.9%
The business
FCF $0.5B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.9%
- Gross margin46%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital21%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
SSD is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.