QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Figma FIG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 57% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 10% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $13.59−37%
- Market Value
- $24.04price −10%
- Off 52-wk high
- −57%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.02
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $21.65
- Fair value est.base case$13.59−37.2%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$16.84−22.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$21.65you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 5$24.04+11.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$49.84+130.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FIG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 24% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FIG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 5.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.02
- Volatility
- 75% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.10
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales grew 43% to $1.3B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 45% a year from FY2023 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 9.9% below its Market Value of $24.04, the average price paid since the Aug 5 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $13.59, 37% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to −122.2% in FY2025 from −14.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityLost $1.5B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 110 points in two fiscal years, to -83% in FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Figma in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
FCF yield 2.0% · ROE -105% · Sales +43%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 49.2×
- FCF yield
- 2.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 8.91×
- Price / book
- 7.73×
- Market cap
- $11.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +43.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +44.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$4.29
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$1.5B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 79.1%
- Operating margin
- −123.8%
- Net margin
- −119.1%
- FCF margin
- 18.1%
- Return on equity
- −105%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $232M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −20%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $1.7B
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Figma’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $13.59 · MV $24.04 · FCF value $10.46
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 44.6% a year FY23–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.44 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 44 · 5 days −12.1%
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +48%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.9%
- Gross margin79%
- Operating margin−32%
- Return on equity−109%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+48%
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.22)
- Year-ago EPS($2.65)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
FIG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.