QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
HubSpot HUBS
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 53% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $486.10+107%
- Market Value
- $238.50price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −53%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.43
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $234.87
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$170.28−27.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$234.87you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 6$238.50+1.5%
- Fair value est.base case$486.10+107.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$494.58+110.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HUBS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 2% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HUBS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 5.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.43
- Volatility
- 74% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.07
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.00
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $486.10, 107% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 0.2% in FY2025 from −9.3% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.7% (price / FCF 14.9×): $797M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 22% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 21% to $3.4B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ValuationP/E of 81.0× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 8% over the last 12 months.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $0.93): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on HubSpot in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 81.0 · FCF yield 6.7% · ROE 8%
Valuation
- P/E
- 81.0×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 14.9×
- FCF yield
- 6.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.45×
- Price / book
- 7.18×
- Market cap
- $11.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $3.4B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +21.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +21.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.81
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/an/m: EPS a year ago near zero
- Net income, 12 months
- $147M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 83.2%
- Operating margin
- 3.8%
- Net margin
- 4.3%
- FCF margin
- 23.1%
- Return on equity
- 8%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 202.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $797M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +27%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.1B9.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $515M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From HubSpot’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $486.10 · MV $238.50 · FCF value $330.59
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 21.8% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $15.76 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days −13.3%
The business
FCF $0.7B · Sales +20%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin83%
- Operating margin5%
- Return on invested capital24%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+20%
- Net debt / EBITDA−7.0×
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.93
- Year-ago EPS$0.04
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
HUBS is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.