QualityDipStocks / Technology · Software
Manhattan Associates MANH
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $170.45−31%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.21
4 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $248.39
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$120.88−51.3%
- Fair value est.base case$170.45−31.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$248.39at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$248.39you are here
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 12.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 10.1%; bull = 8.5% and 14.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MANH’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MANH moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.21
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.06
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.02
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 84% over the last 12 months, up 6 points in two years.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.6% in a year: $434M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 25.9% in FY2025 from 22.6% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales grew 8% to $1.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $170.45, 31% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 68.5× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 72.7×, above the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 2.6% in the last fiscal year, below the 18% median for the 118 Technology companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Manhattan Associates in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Software
All fundamentals
P/E 68.5 · FCF yield 2.6% · ROE 84%
Valuation
- P/E
- 68.5×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 38.4×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 12.61×
- Price / book
- 72.67×
- Market cap
- $14.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +8.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +12.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.57
- EPS growth, last FY
- +2.6%
- Net income, 12 months
- $213M
- Net income growth
- −1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 55.9%
- Operating margin
- 24.1%
- Net margin
- 18.4%
- FCF margin
- 32.8%
- Return on equity
- 84%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $199M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $380M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +14%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $434M3.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $121M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Manhattan Associates’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $170.45 · FCF value $141.94
Assumes 12.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 12.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.46 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 72 · 5 days +4.3%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +11%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin56%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on equity84%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+11%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MANH is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.