QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Comfort Systems USA FIX
In a deep dip: 40% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $1,101−11%
- Market Value
- $1,251price −2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −40%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.59
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $1,233
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$876.19−28.9%
- Fair value est.base case$1,101−10.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$1,233you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 22$1,251+1.5%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$2,067+67.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FIX’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FIX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.59
- Volatility
- 57% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.58
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.64
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 98% to $28.88 in FY2025.
GrowthSales compounded 32% a year from FY2021 to FY2024.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 59% over the last 12 months, up 6 points in two years.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 206% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 40% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales fell 37% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthSales growth slowed to −37% over the last 12 months, from 32% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $1,101, 11% below the price.
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 39.3×, above the 16.6× median for the 96 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskSwings hard: beta 2.59 vs the S&P 500 and 57% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Comfort Systems USA in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Engineering & Construction
All fundamentals
P/E 26.6 · FCF yield 5.6% · ROE 59%
Valuation
- P/E
- 26.6×3-yr-end avg 28.1× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 17.7×
- FCF yield
- 5.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 39.3×
- Price / sales
- 8.22×
- Price / book
- 12.99×
- Market cap
- $43.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $41.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −36.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +31.7%/yrfrom FY2021
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $46.30
- EPS growth, last FY
- +97.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.6B
- Net income growth
- +95%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 26.8%
- Operating margin
- 18.8%
- Net margin
- 30.9%
- FCF margin
- 46.3%
- Return on equity
- 59%
- Return on invested capital
- 52%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.2B
- Total debt
- $50M
- Net cash
- $2.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.01×
- Interest coverage
- 125.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +206%
- Dividend yield
- 0.24%$106M paid
- Payout ratio
- 6%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $438M1.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $37M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Comfort Systems USA’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $1,101 · MV $1,251 · FCF value $1,621
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -23.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $69.45 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 22, 2026. Net cash $2.1B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 34 · 5 days +6.2%
The business
FCF $2.4B · Sales +54%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin26%
- Operating margin17%
- Return on invested capital49%
- Return on equity58%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+54%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when FIX fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on FIX or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.