QualityDipStocks / Finance · Real Estate
Forestar Group FOR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 23% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Down 23% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 12%
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −23%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.82
52-week range 16% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $24.55
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Mixed signals
The price is 23% below its 52-week high (Jun 29), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) +2.6% of market cap since the high, free cash flow +6.7%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) +2.6% of market cap since the high, free cash flow +6.7%, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less), others slipped (revenue growth rate −4.4 pts). The price is 23% below its 52-week high.
The price is 23% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −4.4 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.7B → $1.7B (+1.0%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+16.1% → +11.8% a year (−4.4 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$3.27 → $3.32 (+1.8%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$265M → $283M (+6.7%)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.1% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+2.6% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −23%, sector median +1% since Jun 29changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −23%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +2% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 6.2× at the high → 4.4× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Mar 31, 2026) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($31.98, Jun 29) the price assumed about −13%/yr free-cash-flow growth; today about −19%. The last 3 years delivered 3%/yr (revenue).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 3%/yr (revenue)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $31.98Jun 29 | $23.09Nov 19 | $24.55 |
| Implied growth | −13% | n/a | −19% |
| P/E | 9.8× | 7.0× | 7.4× |
| P/FCF | 6.2× | — | 4.4× |
| EV/Sales | 1.2× | 1.0× | 1.0× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for FOR: the model gives 257% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FOR’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FOR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 2.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.82
- Volatility
- 33% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.32
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.18
Valuation details
FCF value $132.19
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 22.5% (price / FCF 4.4×): $283M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 7.4× vs a 13.3× median for the 364 Finance companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 12% to $1.7B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ValuationPrice / book of 0.7×, below the 1.6× median for the 368 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 18% to $3.29 in FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 3.1% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 9.2% median for the 356 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 21%, below the 52% median for the 28 Finance companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 9.6%, below the 12% median for the 363 Finance companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
All fundamentals
P/E 7.4 · FCF yield 22.5% · ROE 10%
Valuation
- P/E
- 7.4×Finance median 13.3×
- Price / FCF
- 4.4×
- FCF yield
- 22.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 0.73×
- Price / book
- 0.68×
- Market cap
- $1.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $1.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +11.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.33
- EPS growth, last FY
- −17.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $170M
- Net income growth
- +5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 21.4%
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- 9.9%
- FCF margin
- 16.4%
- Return on equity
- 10%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $395M
- Total debt
- $794M
- Net cash
- −$399M
- Debt / equity
- 0.43×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $283M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $8M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Forestar Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales −13%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield22.5%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin11%
- Return on invested capital7%
- Return on equity8%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−13%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $24.55
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$23.09−5.9%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$24.55you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$31.98+30.3%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 41 · 5 days −5.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
FOR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Forestar Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Real Estate
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.