QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Business Services
Shift4 Payments FOUR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 43% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: the model result is under review.
Worth knowing
- Down 45% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 32%
- FCF yield 17%, top 2% of the 1145 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $41.40price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −43%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.32
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 43% below its 52-week high (Nov 28), but the business held up: revenue +23.3%, revenue growth rate +9.3 pts, free cash flow +7.9%.
Some numbers held up (revenue +23.3%, revenue growth rate +9.3 pts, free cash flow +7.9%), others slipped (net cash (cash minus debt) −1688.3% of market cap since the high). The price is 43% below its 52-week high.
The price is 43% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: net cash (cash minus debt) −1688.3% of market cap since the high.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$3.9B → $4.8B (+23.3%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+23.2% → +32.4% a year (+9.3 pts)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$531M → $573M (+7.9%)held up
- Operating margin8.0% → 8.1% (+0.1 pts)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)−1688.3% of market cap since the highchanged
- Stock vs its sector (Consumer Discretionary)stock −43%, sector median +10% since Nov 28changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −43%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +16% (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk low: P/E 1.1×; now: P/E 1.3×.
| Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $35.58Oct 1 | $42.07 |
| Implied growth | below −30% | below −30% |
| P/E | 1.1× | 1.3× |
| P/FCF | 0.1× | 0.1× |
| EV/Sales | 0.9× | 0.9× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for FOUR: Result (315.1x the price) looks implausible; held back for review. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FOUR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.32
- Volatility
- 65% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.26
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.13
How it ranks
Where FOUR stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 3 of 5 measures
- Free cash flow yield17% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,391
- Dividends + buybacks yield19% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 1%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+32% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 14%of 1,814
- Operating margin8.1% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 37%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital5.4% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 25%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
MV $41.40 · FCF value $111.55
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 17.4% (price / FCF 5.8×): $573M of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 28% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 32% to $4.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 8.4% in FY2025 from 4.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 8.1×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 76.7× vs a 20.7× median for the 341 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet debt of $4.2B, 126% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
Balance sheetDebt rose 160% to $4.5B from FY2023 to FY2025.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.5× over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 4.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
P/E 76.7 · FCF yield 17.4% · ROE 3%
Valuation
- P/E
- 76.7×Consumer Discretionary median 20.7×
- Price / FCF
- 5.8×
- FCF yield
- 17.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.1×
- Price / sales
- 0.69×
- Price / book
- 2.04×
- Market cap
- $3.3Blisted
- Enterprise value
- $7.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $4.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +32.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +28.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $43M
- Net income growth
- −79%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 8.1%
- Net margin
- 0.9%
- FCF margin
- 12.0%
- Return on equity
- 3%
- Return on invested capital
- 5%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $356M
- Total debt
- $4.5B
- Net cash
- −$4.2B
- Debt / equity
- 2.79×
- Interest coverage
- 1.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $573M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +13%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $626M19.0% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $88M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Shift4 Payments’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +34%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield17.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin7%
- Gross margin36%
- Operating margin8%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity6%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+34%
- Net debt / EBITDA4.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $42.07
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$35.58−15.4%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$41.40−1.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$42.07you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$73.78+75.4%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 60 · 5 days +13.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, before the open
- Consensus EPS$1.11
- Year-ago EPS$1.33
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
FOUR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Shift4 Payments in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Business Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.