QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Oil and Gas Field Machinery
TechnipFMC plc Ordinary Share FTI
Not in a dip by our rules: 14% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $117.07+70%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −14%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.35
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $68.77
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$41.35−39.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$68.77you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$80.08+16.4%
- Fair value est.base case$117.07+70.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.0%; bull = 8.5% and 16.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FTI’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FTI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.35
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.14
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.14
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $117.07, 70% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 53%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Balance sheetPaid down debt: $430M at FY2025, 60% less than at FY2023.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 39% over the last 12 months, up 27 points in two years.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.3%, below the 1.7% median for the 114 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 8.2×, above the 4.9× median for the 151 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationP/E of 21.3×, above the 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on TechnipFMC plc Ordinary Share in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Discretionary
All fundamentals
P/E 21.3 · FCF yield 5.8% · ROE 39%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.3×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 17.2×
- FCF yield
- 5.8%
- EV / EBITDA
- 12.2×
- Price / sales
- 2.57×
- Price / book
- 8.22×
- Market cap
- $27.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $26.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $10.7B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.1%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.18
- EPS growth, last FY
- +20.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.3B
- Net income growth
- +36%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 16.8%
- Net margin
- 12.0%
- FCF margin
- 14.9%
- Return on equity
- 39%
- Return on invested capital
- 53%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.0B
- Total debt
- $404M
- Net cash
- $645M
- Debt / equity
- 0.12×
- Interest coverage
- 30.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +3%
- Dividend yield
- 0.29%$79M paid
- Payout ratio
- 6%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −4.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From TechnipFMC plc Ordinary Share’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $117.07 · FCF value $102.63
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 14.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $4.00 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net cash $645M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 46 · 5 days −1.6%
The business
FCF $1.6B · Sales +9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.6B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin15%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin15%
- Return on invested capital34%
- Return on equity36%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+9%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when FTI fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on FTI or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.