QualityDipStocks / Finance · Consumer finance
Golub Capital BDC GBDC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 10% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 9.4%, top 1% of the 1731 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $11.38−12%
- Market Value
- $12.23price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.50
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 10.1×; 52-wk low: P/E 9.5×; now: P/E 19.5×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $14.37Dec 10 | $11.97Mar 13 | $12.89 |
| P/E | 10.1× | 9.5× | 19.5× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 7.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 5.0%; bull = 8.5% and 9.0%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GBDC would need a return on equity of about 8% a year; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GBDC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.50
- Volatility
- 20% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.21
Valuation details
DCF $11.38 · MV $12.23
Financials model (residual income): book value $14.27 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 7.0%, the average of 4.5% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 9.5% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 100% of earnings (dividends 183% + net buybacks 48%; capped at 100%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 3, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 9.4% ($315M paid over 12 months).
Cash returnsShare count down 2.4% in a year: $83M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationPrice / book of 0.9×, below the 1.7× median for the 296 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $11.38, 12% below the price.
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $315M paid vs $172M of net income.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 4% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter.
ValuationTrades 5.4% above its Market Value of $12.23, the average price paid since the Oct 6 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 19.5 · ROE 4%
Valuation
- P/E
- 19.5×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Price / sales
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Price / book
- 0.90×
- Market cap
- $3.3Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $7.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.66
- EPS growth, last FY
- +4.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $172M
- Net income growth
- −54%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- 4%
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $71M
- Total debt
- $4.5B
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a lender
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 9.41%$315M paid
- Payout ratio
- 183%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $83M2.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Golub Capital BDC’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales −14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield8.5%
- Return on equity4%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−14%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $12.89
- Fair value est.base case$11.38−11.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$11.97−7.1%
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 6$12.23−5.1%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$12.89you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$14.37+11.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 66 · 5 days +6.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 17
- DateTue Nov 17, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.33
- Year-ago EPS$0.39
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GBDC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Golub Capital BDC in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer finance
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.