QualityDipStocks / Finance · Consumer finance
PennyMac Financial Services PFSI
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 59% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
Worth knowing
- Down 59% from its 52-week high while revenue grew 114%
- Deepest drop from a 52-week high in over 3 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $107.49+65%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −59%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.81
3 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 59% below its 52-week high (Jan 16), but the business held up: revenue +100.6%, revenue growth rate +149.8 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (revenue +100.6%, revenue growth rate +149.8 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (earnings per share −18.4%). The price is 59% below its 52-week high.
The price is 59% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: earnings per share −18.4%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 7 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$18M → $36M (+100.6%)held up
- Revenue growth rate−35.8% → +114.0% a year (+149.8 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$9.26 → $7.55 (−18.4%)changed
- Shares outstanding−3.6% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Finance)stock −59%, sector median +6% since Jan 16changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −59%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +41% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/E 17.2× at the high → 8.6× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 17.2×; 52-wk low: P/E 7.8×; now: P/E 8.6×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $159.46Jan 16 | $57.75Oct 14 | $65.32 |
| P/E | 17.2× | 7.8× | 8.6× |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Banks, insurers and lenders: cash flow includes deposits and loans, so a cash-flow model doesn't fit; we show P/E at each point instead. P/E = that day's close × diluted shares / 12-month net income, using only the filings that were public on that day.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Financials model (residual income). Same residual-income model as the base: cost of equity 9.5% ±1 point and return on equity 11.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.5%; bull = 8.5% and 13.5%. A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, PFSI would need a return on equity of about 8% a year; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much PFSI moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, and its own price swings are 3.6× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.81
- Volatility
- 47% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.22
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
How it ranks
Where PFSI stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate65% · price below our base caseTop 17%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield1.9% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capLowest 39%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+114% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 1%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $107.49
Financials model (residual income): book value $83.48 a share on Jun 30, 2026, plus the earnings above a 9.5% cost of equity. ROE 11.5%, the average of 9.4% for the trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026 and 13.6% over fiscal 2021–2025, on average common equity; payout 16% of earnings (dividends 16%), so book grows by the retained rest; the return above 9.5% fades halfway toward 9.5% over 10 years, then grows at 3% (terminal value). From the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
ValuationOur residual-income fair value estimate is $107.49, 65% above the price.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 59% to $9.30 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 8.6× vs a 13.6× median for the 291 Finance companies we cover.
Top bearish points 1 of 5
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: no positive free cash flow; ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; no sales-growth data.
All fundamentals
P/E 8.6 · Sales +114%
Valuation
- P/E
- 8.6×Finance median 13.6×
- Price / FCF
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- FCF yield
- n/acash flow isn't a clean measure for a lender
- EV / EBITDA
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Price / sales
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $3.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- n/athe SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- +59.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $392M
- Net income growth
- +1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/aneeds total revenue: the SEC revenue tag covers only part of this company's revenue (it is under 1.5x net income)
- FCF margin
- n/an/m: revenue near zero
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
- Debt / equity
- n/adeposits/float make debt/equity not comparable for a lender
- Interest coverage
- n/anot meaningful for a lender
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- −$1.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 1.86%$63M paid
- Payout ratio
- 16%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $25M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026. From PennyMac Financial Services’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $-1.8B
- Free cash flow, 12 months−$1.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield−52.9%
- Return on equity6%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $65.32
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$57.75−11.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$65.32you are here
- Fair value est.base case$107.49+64.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$159.46+144.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 56 · 5 days +3.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
PFSI is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on PennyMac Financial Services in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer finance
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.