QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Marine Transportation
General Dynamics GD
Not in a dip by our rules: 6% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $496.93+33%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −6%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.29
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $372.59
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$312.53−16.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$372.59you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$395.97+6.3%
- Fair value est.base case$496.93+33.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 10.1% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 8.1%; bull = 8.5% and 12.1% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GD’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 10%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GD moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.29
- Volatility
- 23% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.01
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $496.93, 33% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.7% (price / FCF 17.7×): $5.8B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 16%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 18% over the last 12 months.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 10%, below the 15% median for the 128 Industrials companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count up 0.4% over 12 months, above the −0.8% median for the 137 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on General Dynamics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Industrials
All fundamentals
P/E 21.9 · FCF yield 5.7% · ROE 18%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.9×3-yr-end avg 20.9× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 17.7×
- FCF yield
- 5.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.4×
- Price / sales
- 1.80×
- Price / book
- 3.74×
- Market cap
- $102Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $105B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $56.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +9.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- +13.4%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.7B
- Net income growth
- +10%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 10.4%
- Net margin
- 8.2%
- FCF margin
- 10.2%
- Return on equity
- 18%
- Return on invested capital
- 16%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.4B
- Total debt
- $7.0B
- Net cash
- −$2.6B
- Debt / equity
- 0.26×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5.8B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +20%
- Dividend yield
- 1.64%$1.7B paid
- Payout ratio
- 36%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $641M0.6% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $219M
Trailing 12 months to Oct 4, 2026; balance sheet at Oct 4, 2026. From General Dynamics’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $496.93 · FCF value $599.00
Assumes 10.1% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 10.1% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $21.11 a share (trailing 12 months to Oct 4, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 30, 2026. Net debt $1.9B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 73 · 5 days +6.6%
The business
FCF $6.5B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$6.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin15%
- Operating margin10%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when GD fires a reversal signal
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