QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Auto Manufacturing
Ferrari RACE
Not in a dip by our rules: 9% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $306.22−23%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −9%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.93
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $395.99
- Fair value est.base case$306.22−22.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$314.63−20.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$395.99you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$436.54+10.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.9%; bull = 8.5% and 13.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, RACE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 12%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much RACE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 2.4× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.93
- Volatility
- 31% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.38
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 43% over the last 12 months.
GrowthSales compounded 12% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 29% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 29.5% in FY2025 from 27.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $306.22, 23% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 39.4× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 16.1×, above the 4.4× median for the 134 Industrials companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.0%, below the 3.5% median for the 144 Industrials companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $2.66): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ferrari in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Auto Manufacturing
All fundamentals
P/E 39.4 · FCF yield 3.0% · ROE 43%
Valuation
- P/E
- 39.4×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 33.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 8.80×
- Price / book
- 16.10×
- Market cap
- $70.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.96
- EPS growth, last FY
- +5.9%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Net income growth
- +5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 51.7%
- Operating margin
- 29.5%
- Net margin
- 22.3%
- FCF margin
- 26.1%
- Return on equity
- 43%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.6B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 21.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +29%
- Dividend yield
- 0.85%$597M paid
- Payout ratio
- 33%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Ferrari’s SEC filings, reported in EUR and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $306.22 · FCF value $152.47
Assumes 11.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.74 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from EUR at 1.123), from the 20-F filed Feb 19, 2026. Shares: SEC diluted count matches the cover page's 177.3M ordinary shares; special voting shares carry no economic rights. Net debt $1.6B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 50 · 5 days +0.7%
The business
FCF $1.4B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield1.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin52%
- Operating margin29%
- Return on invested capital26%
- Return on equity43%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.6×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.66
- Year-ago EPS$2.50
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when RACE fires a reversal signal
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