QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Fluid Controls
Graco GGG
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 29% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading above our fair value estimate, 15% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $58.33−14%
- Market Value
- $79.50price −15%
- Off 52-wk high
- −29%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.62
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $67.44
- Fair value est.base case$58.33−13.5%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$66.07−2.0%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$67.44you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Jan 26$79.50+17.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$94.82+40.6%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GGG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GGG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.62
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.19
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.5% (price / FCF 18.3×): $600M of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.3% in a year: $525M of buybacks over 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 27% over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 21%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ValuationTrades 15.2% below its Market Value of $79.50, the average price paid since the Jan 26 filing.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $58.33, 14% below the price.
GrowthSales grew only 1.4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthSales grew 5.4% over the last 12 months, below the 9.3% median for the 147 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Graco in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Fluid Controls
All fundamentals
P/E 21.2 · FCF yield 5.5% · ROE 20%
Valuation
- P/E
- 21.2×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 18.3×
- FCF yield
- 5.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 15.0×
- Price / sales
- 4.76×
- Price / book
- 4.45×
- Market cap
- $11.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $11.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +1.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.10
- EPS growth, last FY
- +9.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $517M
- Net income growth
- +4%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 52.0%
- Operating margin
- 26.8%
- Net margin
- 22.4%
- FCF margin
- 26.0%
- Return on equity
- 20%
- Return on invested capital
- 21%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $140M
- Total debt
- $104M
- Net cash
- $36M
- Debt / equity
- 0.04×
- Interest coverage
- 189.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $600M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −4%
- Dividend yield
- 1.74%$191M paid
- Payout ratio
- 37%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $525M4.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.3%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $33M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 25, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 25, 2026. From Graco’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $58.33 · MV $79.50 · FCF value $65.91
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 1.4% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.68 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 25, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 21, 2026. Net cash $36M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 31 · 5 days +0.7%
The business
FCF $0.4B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin19%
- Gross margin52%
- Operating margin25%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA0.0×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
GGG is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.