QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Global Net Lease GNL
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 30% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 15% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
Worth knowing
- Dividend yield 11%, top 1% of the 2092 we measure
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $8.21price −15%
- Off 52-wk high
- −30%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.13
52-week range at its 52-week low
Price $6.96Market Value $8.21
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 30% below its 52-week high (Feb 10), but the business held up: operating margin +29.7 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (operating margin +29.7 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue −38.8%, revenue growth rate −31.5 pts). The price is 30% below its 52-week high.
The price is 30% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −38.8%, revenue growth rate −31.5 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 8 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$751M → $460M (−38.8%)changed
- Revenue growth rate+17.6% → −13.9% a year (−31.5 pts)changed
- Free cash flow, 12 months$203M → $201M (−0.9%)about the same
- Operating margin10.0% → 39.6% (+29.7 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−4.3% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −30%, sector median −1% since Feb 10changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −30%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −20% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 10.8× at the high → 7.3× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($9.96, Feb 10) the price assumed about −4%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($6.96, Nov 2) about −11%; today about −11%. The last 3 years delivered 8%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 8%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $9.96Feb 10 | $6.96Nov 2 | $6.96 |
| Implied growth | −4% | −11% | −11% |
| P/FCF | 10.8× | 7.3× | 7.3× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for GNL: the model gives 209% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, GNL’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 11% a year for five years; our estimate uses 9%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much GNL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.7× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.13
- Volatility
- 22% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.07
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.02
Valuation details
MV $8.21 · FCF value $21.75
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 13.7% (price / FCF 7.3×): $201M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 22.4% in FY2025 from −3.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count down 5.2% in a year: $94M of buybacks over 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 11.3% ($167M paid over 12 months).
ValuationTrades 15.3% below its Market Value of $8.21, the average price paid since the Aug 13 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to −14% over the last 12 months, from 9% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 1.1× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $57M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
GrowthSales fell 14% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 6.8× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 13.7% · ROE -3% · Sales −14%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 7.3×
- FCF yield
- 13.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.20×
- Price / book
- 0.97×
- Market cap
- $1.5Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $460M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −13.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +9.3%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$0.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$57M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 39.6%
- Net margin
- −12.5%
- FCF margin
- 43.8%
- Return on equity
- −3%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $154M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 1.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $201M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −0%
- Dividend yield
- 11.32%$167M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $94M6.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −5.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $14M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Global Net Lease’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales −10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield13.7%
- Gross margin86%
- Operating margin31%
- Return on invested capital3%
- Return on equity−1%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−10%
- Net debt / EBITDA6.8×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $6.96
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$6.96you are here
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$6.96at the price
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 13$8.21+18.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$9.96+43.1%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 26 · 5 days −2.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Year-ago EPS$0.24
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
GNL is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Global Net Lease in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.