QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
Blackstone Mortgage Trust BXMT
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 45% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen. No fair value estimate for now: there isn’t enough data.
Worth knowing
- Lowest price in 5 years of weekly closes
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −45%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.41
52-week range 11% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Price $11.30
3 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
52-wk high: P/E 33.1×; 52-wk low: P/E 111.6×.
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $20.63Dec 15 | $10.20Oct 21 | $11.30 |
| Implied growth | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| P/E | 33.1× | 111.6× | n/a |
What this means: a lower P/E than at the high means you pay less for each dollar of profit than buyers did then.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
No estimate for BXMT: Capital spending isn't tagged in SEC XBRL data. We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much BXMT moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.41
- Volatility
- 26% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.20
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.04
Valuation details
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 16.7% ($318M paid over 12 months).
Cash returnsShare count down 2.2% in a year: $102M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationPrice / book of 0.7×, below the 1.8× median for the 105 Real Estate companies we cover.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
ProfitabilityLost $375M over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of −12%, below the 6.7% median for the 103 Real Estate companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; no sales-growth data; debt load unclear or high.
All fundamentals
ROE -12%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF yield
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 20.06×
- Price / book
- 0.67×
- Market cap
- $1.9Blisted
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $95M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- n/ano year-ago 12-month revenue
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- n/an/m
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$2.23
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$375M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net margin
- n/an/m
- FCF margin
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on equity
- −12%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $512M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Dividend yield
- 16.73%$318M paid
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $102M5.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −2.2%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $27M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Blackstone Mortgage Trust’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
- Gross margin100%
- Operating margin188%
- Return on invested capital1%
- Return on equity−12%
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $11.30
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$10.20−9.7%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$11.30you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$20.63+82.6%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days +6.4%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
BXMT is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Blackstone Mortgage Trust in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 5:14 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.