QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Specialty Foods
The Hershey Company HSY
In a deep dip: 30% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $175.62+6%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −30%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.24
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $165.61
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$157.61−4.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$165.61you are here
- Fair value est.base case$175.62+6.0%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$236.28+42.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.9%; bull = 8.5% and 5.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, HSY’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 4%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much HSY moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.24
- Volatility
- 28% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.11
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.26
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.4% (price / FCF 15.7×): $2.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 3.4% ($1.1B paid over 12 months, 63% of earnings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 15% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 30% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 12.3% in FY2025 from 22.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 33.5% in FY2025 from 44.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on The Hershey Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Staples
All fundamentals
P/E 18.6 · FCF yield 6.4% · Sales +7%
Valuation
- P/E
- 18.6×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 15.7×
- FCF yield
- 6.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.72×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $33.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $12.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +6.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.9%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Net income growth
- +32%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 41.9%
- Operating margin
- 20.8%
- Net margin
- 14.6%
- FCF margin
- 17.3%
- Return on equity
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 11.5×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +15%
- Dividend yield
- 3.38%$1.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 63%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $439M1.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- $72M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026. From The Hershey Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $175.62 · FCF value $272.59
Assumes 3.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.9% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $10.52 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 27, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 48 · 5 days −2.4%
The business
FCF $2.1B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin17%
- Gross margin42%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity38%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when HSY fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on HSY or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.