QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Food Chains
Kroger Company KR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 12% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading near our fair value estimate, 8% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $62.13−7%
- Market Value
- $61.57price +8%
- Off 52-wk high
- −12%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.71
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $66.76
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$55.53−16.8%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 11$61.57−7.8%
- Fair value est.base case$62.13−6.9%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$66.76you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$75.60+13.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.71
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.30
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.42
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsShare count down 8.6% in a year: $3.8B of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.9% (price / FCF 17.0×): $2.4B of free cash in the last 12 months.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.2% ($894M paid over 12 months, 83% of earnings).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 10.2×, below the 13.5× median for the 26 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 58% to $1.54 in FY2026.
Balance sheetDebt rose 56% to $15.9B from FY2024 to FY2026.
ValuationP/E of 37.7× vs a 21.7× median for the 36 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.9× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 8.4% above its Market Value of $61.57, the average price paid since the Sep 11 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Kroger Company in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Staples
All fundamentals
P/E 37.7 · FCF yield 5.9% · ROE 14%
Valuation
- P/E
- 37.7×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 17.0×
- FCF yield
- 5.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 10.2×
- Price / sales
- 0.27×
- Price / book
- 6.95×
- Market cap
- $40.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $54.3B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $149B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +1.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −0.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.85
- EPS growth, last FY
- −58.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- −60%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 1.4%
- Net margin
- 0.7%
- FCF margin
- 1.6%
- Return on equity
- 14%
- Return on invested capital
- 9%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- $15.4B
- Net cash
- −$13.7B
- Debt / equity
- 2.63×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.4B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +8%
- Dividend yield
- 2.20%$894M paid
- Payout ratio
- 83%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3.8B9.3% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $175M
Trailing 12 months to Aug 15, 2026; balance sheet at Aug 15, 2026. From Kroger Company’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $62.13 · MV $61.57 · FCF value $102.11
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -0.1% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $3.92 a share (trailing 12 months to Aug 15, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Sep 18, 2026. Net debt $13.7B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days 0.0%
The business
FCF $2.4B · Sales +2%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.4B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin2%
- Gross margin23%
- Operating margin1%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity16%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+2%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.9×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
KR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.