QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Beverages
Ambev ABEV
On dip watch: 22% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $3.78+42%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −22%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.47
5 bullish · 2 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $2.66
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$2.30−13.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$2.66you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$3.43+28.9%
- Fair value est.base case$3.78+42.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.4% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.4%; bull = 8.5% and 5.4% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ABEV’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ABEV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.8× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.47
- Volatility
- 36% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.11
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $3.78, 42% above the price.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 8.7% (price / FCF 11.4×): $3.7B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 14.6× vs a 21.7× median for the 36 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
Balance sheetNet cash of $3.2B: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Dec 31, 2025).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 2 of 5
GrowthSales fell 1.4% over the last 12 months, below the 3.5% median for the 39 Consumer Staples companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew only 3.4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Ambev in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Beverages
All fundamentals
P/E 14.6 · FCF yield 8.7% · ROE 17%
Valuation
- P/E
- 14.6×Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 11.4×
- FCF yield
- 8.7%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 2.57×
- Price / book
- 2.58×
- Market cap
- $41.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $38.5B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $16.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −1.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +3.4%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.99
- EPS growth, last FY
- +8.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.8B
- Net income growth
- +7%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 51.4%
- Operating margin
- 26.4%
- Net margin
- 17.6%
- FCF margin
- 22.5%
- Return on equity
- 17%
- Return on invested capital
- 26%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.4B
- Total debt
- $215M
- Net cash
- $3.2B
- Debt / equity
- 0.01×
- Interest coverage
- 5.3×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.7B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −7%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Ambev’s SEC filings, reported in BRL and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $3.78 · FCF value $39.00
Assumes 3.4% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.4% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.23 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from BRL at 0.1838), from the 20-F filed Mar 3, 2026. Net cash $2.6B, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 30 · 5 days −19.4%
The business
FCF $24.7B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$24.7B
- Free-cash-flow yield58.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin28%
- Gross margin52%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital20%
- Return on equity18%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.6×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ABEV fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ABEV or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.