QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
Intercontinental Hotels Group IHG
Not in a dip by our rules: 4% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $104.39−38%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −4%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.68
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $167.81
- Fair value est.base case$104.39−37.8%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$121.46−27.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$167.81you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$174.13+3.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 5.9% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 3.9%; bull = 8.5% and 7.9% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, IHG’s free cash flow would need to grow about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 6%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much IHG moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.0× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.68
- Volatility
- 25% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.35
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.22
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 26% to $4.87 in FY2025.
GrowthSales compounded 10% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 25% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 85%, above the 39% median for the 120 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $104.39, 38% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 34.5× is 26% above its own average of 27.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
ValuationP/E of 34.5× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.3%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 5.4% over the last 12 months, below the 7.0% median for the 175 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Intercontinental Hotels Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
All fundamentals
P/E 34.5 · FCF yield 3.3% · Sales +5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 34.5×3-yr-end avg 27.3× · Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 30.1×
- FCF yield
- 3.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 5.04×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $26.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +5.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +10.1%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.87
- EPS growth, last FY
- +26.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $758M
- Net income growth
- +21%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 85.3%
- Operating margin
- 23.1%
- Net margin
- 14.6%
- FCF margin
- 16.8%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.1B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 5.9×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $870M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +25%
- Dividend yield
- 1.03%$270M paid
- Payout ratio
- 36%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $897M3.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Intercontinental Hotels Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $104.39 · FCF value $144.32
Assumes 5.9% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 5.9% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.58 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 20-F filed Feb 26, 2026. Net debt $3.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 57 · 5 days +3.3%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.4%
- Free-cash-flow margin16%
- Gross margin31%
- Operating margin24%
- Return on invested capital85%
- Sales growth (last fiscal year vs prior)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.7×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when IHG fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on IHG or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.