QualityDipStocks / Consumer Discretionary · Hotels/Resorts
Marriott International MAR
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 1% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate, 5% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $248.84−38%
- Market Value
- $378.86price +5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −1%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.63
4 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $399.30
- Fair value est.base case$248.84−37.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$260.58−34.7%
- Market Valueavg paid since Sep 24$378.86−5.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$399.30you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$404.00+1.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 8.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 6.0%; bull = 8.5% and 10.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MAR’s free cash flow would need to grow about 17% a year for five years; our estimate uses 8%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MAR moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves much less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.63
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.30
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.15
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 86% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Cash returnsShare count down 3.7% in a year: $3.6B of buybacks over 12 months.
Balance sheetNet cash of $439M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 14% in the last fiscal year, above the 4.8% median for the 158 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $248.84, 38% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 40.8× vs a 20.9× median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.0%, below the 4.9% median for the 169 Consumer Discretionary companies we cover.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: net debt 3.4× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 5.4% above its Market Value of $378.86, the average price paid since the Sep 24 filing.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Marriott International in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Hotels/Resorts
All fundamentals
P/E 40.8 · FCF yield 3.0% · Sales +5%
Valuation
- P/E
- 40.8×Consumer Discretionary median 20.9×
- Price / FCF
- 33.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.93×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $106Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $105B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $26.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +4.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +8.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $9.66
- EPS growth, last FY
- +14.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.6B
- Net income growth
- +5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 15.8%
- Net margin
- 9.6%
- FCF margin
- 11.6%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $462M
- Total debt
- $23M
- Net cash
- $439M
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 5.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $3.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +86%
- Dividend yield
- 0.69%$731M paid
- Payout ratio
- 28%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $3.6B3.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −3.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $249M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Marriott International’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $248.84 · MV $378.86 · FCF value $299.86
Assumes 8.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 8.0% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $11.84 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 3, 2026. Net cash $439M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 68 · 5 days +2.2%
The business
FCF $3.1B · Sales +5%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin12%
- Gross margin20%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital27%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+5%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.4×
Next report
Nov 2
- DateMon Nov 2, before the open
- Consensus EPS$2.87
- Year-ago EPS$2.47
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MAR is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.