QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Precious Metals
Kinross Gold KGC
In a deep dip: 47% below its 52-week high.
A quality company. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −47%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.97
5 bullish · 1 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $20.13
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$20.13at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$20.13you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$38.07+89.1%
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for KGC: the model gives 221% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KGC’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 6% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KGC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 4.2× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.97
- Volatility
- 54% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.46
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.43
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 10.4% (price / FCF 9.6×): $2.6B of free cash in the last 12 months.
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 153% to $1.95 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 52.7% in FY2025 from 27.4% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 46.5% in FY2025 from 18.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 47% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 1 of 5
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Kinross Gold in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Precious Metals
All fundamentals
P/E 10.3 · FCF yield 10.4% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.3×Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 9.6×
- FCF yield
- 10.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.50×
- Price / book
- 2.87×
- Market cap
- $24.7Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +36.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +26.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $1.95
- EPS growth, last FY
- +153.2%
- Net income, 12 months
- $2.4B
- Net income growth
- +152%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 52.7%
- Operating margin
- 46.5%
- Net margin
- 33.9%
- FCF margin
- 36.4%
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.7B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 40.1×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $2.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +87%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $600M2.4% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Kinross Gold’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
FCF value $60.59
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 28 · 5 days −9.9%
The business
FCF $3.1B · Sales +30%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$3.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield12.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin36%
- Gross margin58%
- Operating margin52%
- Return on invested capital34%
- Return on equity37%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+30%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.3×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when KGC fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on KGC or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.