QualityDipStocks / Basic Materials · Precious Metals
Franco-Nevada FNV
On dip watch: 20% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $196.63−13%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −20%
- Risk vs market
- Above marketbeta 1.27
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $224.95
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$184.71−17.9%
- Fair value est.base case$196.63−12.6%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$224.95you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$280.82+24.8%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 11.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 9.5%; bull = 8.5% and 13.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, FNV’s free cash flow would need to grow about 14% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much FNV moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.27
- Volatility
- 39% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.42
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.37
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 64% to $1.8B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
GrowthDiluted EPS grew 101% to $5.76 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 74.3% in FY2025 from −35.1% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin widened to 73.9% in FY2025 from 62.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 80% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $196.63, 13% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 39.0× vs a 20.5× median for the 19 Basic Materials companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 0.6%, below the 1.2% median for the 17 Basic Materials companies we cover.
RiskCyclical business: one strong year of cash flow can make it look cheaper than it is.
RiskReports earnings Nov 11 (consensus EPS $1.77): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Franco-Nevada in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Precious Metals
All fundamentals
P/E 39.0 · FCF yield 3.4% · ROE 16%
Valuation
- P/E
- 39.0×Basic Materials median 20.5×
- Price / FCF
- 29.1×
- FCF yield
- 3.4%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 23.82×
- Price / book
- 5.69×
- Market cap
- $43.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +63.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.76
- EPS growth, last FY
- +100.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- +101%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 73.9%
- Operating margin
- 74.3%
- Net margin
- 61.0%
- FCF margin
- 81.8%
- Return on equity
- 16%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $671M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 436.8×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +80%
- Dividend yield
- 0.63%$275M paid
- Payout ratio
- 25%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From Franco-Nevada’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $196.63 · FCF value $111.97
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 11.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 11.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $7.73 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025), from the 40-F filed Mar 19, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 37 · 5 days −1.7%
The business
FCF $0.9B · Sales +57%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.9B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin38%
- Gross margin77%
- Operating margin76%
- Return on invested capital17%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+57%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.5×
Next report
Nov 11
- DateWed Nov 11, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.77
- Year-ago EPS$1.43
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when FNV fires a reversal signal
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