QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Trucking
Knight-Swift Transportation KNX
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $147.78+143%
- Market Value
- $61.59price −1%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 1.02
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $60.77
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$41.68−31.4%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$60.77you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 21$61.59+1.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$82.45+35.7%
- Fair value est.base case$147.78+143.2%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, KNX’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 13% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much KNX moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.02
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.34
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.29
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 15.3% (price / FCF 6.5×): $1.5B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $147.78, 143% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 86% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
Balance sheetNet cash of $22M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 8.8×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 44% to $0.41 in FY2025.
ValuationP/E of 64.7× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 3%, below the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity is only 2% over the last 12 months.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Knight-Swift Transportation in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Trucking
All fundamentals
P/E 64.7 · FCF yield 15.3% · ROE 2%
Valuation
- P/E
- 64.7×Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 6.5×
- FCF yield
- 15.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 8.8×
- Price / sales
- 1.24×
- Price / book
- 1.40×
- Market cap
- $9.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $9.9B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $8.0B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +0.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.94
- EPS growth, last FY
- −43.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $153M
- Net income growth
- +8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 4.2%
- Net margin
- 1.9%
- FCF margin
- 19.0%
- Return on equity
- 2%
- Return on invested capital
- 3%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $254M
- Total debt
- $232M
- Net cash
- $22M
- Debt / equity
- 0.03×
- Interest coverage
- 3.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +86%
- Dividend yield
- 1.29%$128M paid
- Payout ratio
- 83%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Knight-Swift Transportation’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $147.78 · MV $61.59 · FCF value $115.46
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 0.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.33 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 28, 2026. Net cash $22M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days −0.7%
The business
FCF $0.8B · Sales +14%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.8B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin10%
- Gross margin24%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital5%
- Return on equity2%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+14%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
KNX is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.