QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Trucking
United Parcel Service UPS
Not in a dip by our rules: 10% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading near our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $101.61−6%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −10%
- Risk vs market
- Below marketbeta 0.70
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $108.25
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$90.87−16.1%
- Fair value est.base case$101.61−6.1%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$108.25you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$120.00+10.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UPS’s free cash flow would need to grow about 4% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UPS moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves a bit less than the market, but its own price swings are 2.3× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.70
- Volatility
- 30% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.30
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.20
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.9% ($5.4B paid over 12 months).
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 54% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 5.9% (price / FCF 16.9×): $5.5B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 20.2× vs a 27.5× median for the 130 Industrials companies we cover.
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
Cash returnsPays out more in dividends than it earns: $5.4B paid vs $4.6B of net income.
ValuationP/E of 20.2× is 12% above its own average of 18.0× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Balance sheetDebt / equity of 1.6×, above the 0.5× median for the 116 Industrials companies we cover.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on United Parcel Service in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Trucking
All fundamentals
P/E 20.2 · FCF yield 5.9% · ROE 30%
Valuation
- P/E
- 20.2×3-yr-end avg 18.0× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 16.9×
- FCF yield
- 5.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.5×
- Price / sales
- 1.02×
- Price / book
- 6.11×
- Market cap
- $92.1Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $111B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $89.9B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.4%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.0%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.38
- EPS growth, last FY
- −2.8%
- Net income, 12 months
- $4.6B
- Net income growth
- −20%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 7.3%
- Net margin
- 5.1%
- FCF margin
- 6.1%
- Return on equity
- 30%
- Return on invested capital
- 15%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $4.7B
- Total debt
- $23.9B
- Net cash
- −$19.2B
- Debt / equity
- 1.58×
- Interest coverage
- 6.0×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $5.5B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +54%
- Dividend yield
- 5.87%$5.4B paid
- Payout ratio
- 118%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $0
- Share count, 1 year
- +0.5%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $115M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From United Parcel Service’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $101.61 · FCF value $161.84
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.0% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $6.41 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 75 · 5 days +7.1%
The business
FCF $5.5B · Sales +8%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$5.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.0%
- Free-cash-flow margin6%
- Gross margin17%
- Operating margin7%
- Return on invested capital13%
- Return on equity29%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+8%
- Net debt / EBITDA2.2×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when UPS fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on UPS or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.