QualityDipStocks / Industrials · Trucking
Old Dominion Freight Line ODFL
In a deep dip: 31% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $84.64−51%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- −31%
- Risk vs market
- Market-likebeta 0.92
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $172.56
- Fair value est.base case$84.64−51.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$126.29−26.8%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$172.56you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$248.73+44.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ODFL’s free cash flow would need to grow about 16% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ODFL moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Moves about in line with the market, and its own price swings are 3.0× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.92
- Volatility
- 38% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.31
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.20
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 43% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 25%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity of 25% over the last 12 months.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 31% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
QualityPasses all four of our quality checks: cash generation, returns on capital, growth and balance sheet.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $84.64, 51% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 24.8% in FY2025 from 28.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 4% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 12% to $4.84 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 5 points in two fiscal years, to 24% in FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Old Dominion Freight Line in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Trucking
All fundamentals
P/E 33.1 · FCF yield 3.1% · ROE 25%
Valuation
- P/E
- 33.1×3-yr-end avg 33.5× · Industrials median 27.5×
- Price / FCF
- 32.3×
- FCF yield
- 3.1%
- EV / EBITDA
- 19.7×
- Price / sales
- 6.43×
- Price / book
- 7.92×
- Market cap
- $36.0Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $35.8B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.6B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −0.6%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −4.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $5.20
- EPS growth, last FY
- −11.7%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Net income growth
- −1%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 25.8%
- Net margin
- 19.4%
- FCF margin
- 19.9%
- Return on equity
- 25%
- Return on invested capital
- 25%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $284M
- Total debt
- $20M
- Net cash
- $264M
- Debt / equity
- 0.00×
- Interest coverage
- 2183.6×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +43%
- Dividend yield
- 0.66%$238M paid
- Payout ratio
- 22%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $545M1.5% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −1.6%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Old Dominion Freight Line’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $84.64 · FCF value $134.13
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -4.2% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.34 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net cash $264M, not added.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 37 · 5 days −5.6%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +10%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield3.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin20%
- Gross margin34%
- Operating margin26%
- Return on invested capital25%
- Return on equity25%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+10%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.1×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ODFL fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on ODFL or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.