QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · Other Consumer Services
Grand Canyon Education LOPE
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 21% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading below our fair value estimate, 5% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- Share count down 7% in 2 years
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $180.22+20%
- Market Value
- $157.73price −5%
- Off 52-wk high
- −21%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta 0.01
5 bullish · 4 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 21% below its 52-week high (Oct 31), but the business held up: revenue +7.0%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +0.4 pts.
Some numbers held up (revenue +7.0%, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more, revenue growth rate +0.4 pts), others slipped (operating margin −2.5 pts). The price is 21% below its 52-week high.
The price is 21% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: operating margin −2.5 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$1.1B → $1.1B (+7.0%)held up
- Revenue growth rate+6.5% → +7.0% a year (+0.4 pts)held up
- Earnings per share, 12 months$8.41 → $8.55 (+1.7%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$261M → $243M (−7.1%)about the same
- Operating margin27.0% → 24.5% (−2.5 pts)changed
- Shares outstanding−6.8% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −21%, sector median +5% since Oct 31changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −21%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +2% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 20.3× at the high → 16.2× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Jun 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($188.30, Oct 31) the price assumed about 7%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($136.72, Jul 22) about 1%; today about 3%. The last 3 years delivered 9%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 9%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $188.30Oct 31 | $136.72Jul 22 | $149.65 |
| Implied growth | +7% | +1% | +3% |
| P/E | 22.4× | 16.7× | 17.5× |
| P/FCF | 20.3× | 14.1× | 16.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 6.7% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 4.7%; bull = 8.5% and 8.7% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LOPE’s free cash flow would need to grow about 3% a year for five years; our estimate uses 7%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LOPE moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.5× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 0.01
- Volatility
- 32% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.00
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.10
How it ranks
Where LOPE stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 1 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate20% · price below our base caseTop 33%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield8.7% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 9%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+7% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 38%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $180.22 · MV $157.73 · FCF value $201.45
Assumes 6.7% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 6.7% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $9.25 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Jul 30, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $180.22, 20% above the price.
Cash returnsShare count down 6.8% in a year: $343M of buybacks over 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 17.5× vs a 25.9× median for the 80 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 6.2% (price / FCF 16.2×): $243M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationTrades 5.1% below its Market Value of $157.73, the average price paid since the Oct 1 filing.
Top bearish points 4 of 5
ValuationPrice / book of 5.9×, above the 2.0× median for the 85 Real Estate companies we cover.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 0.3% in the last fiscal year, below the 12% median for the 73 Real Estate companies we cover.
GrowthSales grew 6.7% a year over the last three fiscal years, below the 7.4% median for the 90 Real Estate companies we cover.
RiskReports earnings Nov 4 (consensus EPS $1.77): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
All fundamentals
P/E 17.5 · FCF yield 6.2% · ROE 31%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.5×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- 16.2×
- FCF yield
- 6.2%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 3.44×
- Price / book
- 5.86×
- Market cap
- $3.9Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +7.0%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +6.7%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $8.28
- EPS growth, last FY
- −0.3%
- Net income, 12 months
- $224M
- Net income growth
- −5%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 24.5%
- Net margin
- 19.6%
- FCF margin
- 21.2%
- Return on equity
- 31%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $275M
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $243M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −7%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $343M8.7% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −6.8%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $14M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Grand Canyon Education’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.2B · Sales +7%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.2B
- Free-cash-flow yield6.2%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin53%
- Operating margin22%
- Return on invested capital40%
- Return on equity31%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+7%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.5×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $149.65
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$136.72−8.6%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$149.65you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 1$157.73+5.4%
- Fair value est.base case$180.22+20.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$188.30+25.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days −6.9%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS$1.77
- Year-ago EPS$1.78
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
LOPE is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Grand Canyon Education in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Other Consumer Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.