QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · Other Consumer Services
Stride LRN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 26% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, 3% under its Market Value. No fair value estimate for now: the model’s result is too extreme to stand behind.
- Fair value est.
- n/a
- Market Value
- $78.25price −3%
- Off 52-wk high
- −26%
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.03
5 bullish · 3 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Dip: business intact
The price is 26% below its 52-week high (Apr 22), but the business held up: free cash flow +104.4%, operating margin +2.4 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more.
Some numbers held up (free cash flow +104.4%, operating margin +2.4 pts, shares outstanding fewer shares, each owns more), others slipped (revenue growth rate −12.4 pts). The price is 26% below its 52-week high.
The price is 26% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue growth rate −12.4 pts.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 10 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$2.5B → $2.5B (+0.7%)about the same
- Revenue growth rate+14.9% → +2.5% a year (−12.4 pts)changed
- Earnings per share, 12 months$6.81 → $7.46 (+9.6%)held up
- Free cash flow, 12 months$247M → $505M (+104.4%)held up
- Operating margin16.0% → 18.4% (+2.4 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding−4.3% (fewer shares, each owns more)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+4.8% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Real Estate)stock −26%, sector median +1% since Apr 22changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −26%, revenue/EPS/FCF median +10% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 19.4× at the high → 6.7× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Dec 31, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Sep 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($102.03, Apr 22) the price assumed about 7%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($61.02, Dec 4) about −9%; today about −12%. The last 3 years delivered 30%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 30%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $102.03Apr 22 | $61.02Dec 4 | $75.71 |
| Implied growth | +7% | −9% | −12% |
| P/E | 15.0× | 9.5× | 10.2× |
| P/FCF | 19.4× | 8.0× | 6.7× |
| EV/Sales | 1.8× | 1.1× | 1.2× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
Estimate unreliable for LRN: the model gives 270% above the price, more than we can stand behind (usually peak-cycle cash flow, heavy debt, or cash flows that include customer or loan balances). We’d rather show nothing than a made-up number.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LRN’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 11%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LRN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 3.2× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.03
- Volatility
- 41% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.01
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.10
Valuation details
MV $78.25 · FCF value $189.27
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 14.9% (price / FCF 6.7×): $505M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 10.2× vs a 25.9× median for the 80 Real Estate companies we cover.
Cash returnsShare count down 8.9% in a year.
Balance sheetNet cash of $371M: cash and short-term investments exceed debt (Sep 30, 2026).
ValuationTrades 3.2% below its Market Value of $78.25, the average price paid since the Oct 20 filing.
Top bearish points 3 of 5
GrowthSales growth slowed to 2% over the last 12 months, from 11% a year over the prior three fiscal years.
ProfitabilityGross margin of 37%, below the 53% median for the 28 Real Estate companies we cover.
ValuationPrice / book of 2.0×, above the 2.0× median for the 85 Real Estate companies we cover.
All fundamentals
P/E 10.2 · FCF yield 14.9% · ROE 21%
Valuation
- P/E
- 10.2×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- 6.7×
- FCF yield
- 14.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.1×
- Price / sales
- 1.34×
- Price / book
- 2.03×
- Market cap
- $3.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.0B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $2.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +11.1%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $7.19
- EPS growth, last FY
- +20.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $334M
- Net income growth
- +6%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 37.4%
- Operating margin
- 18.4%
- Net margin
- 13.2%
- FCF margin
- 19.9%
- Return on equity
- 21%
- Return on invested capital
- 27%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $789M
- Total debt
- $418M
- Net cash
- $371M
- Debt / equity
- 0.25×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $505M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +34%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- −8.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $23M
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Stride’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +3%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield14.9%
- Free-cash-flow margin13%
- Gross margin38%
- Operating margin14%
- Return on invested capital18%
- Return on equity21%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+3%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.3×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $75.71
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$61.02−19.4%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$75.71you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Oct 20$78.25+3.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$102.03+34.8%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 39 · 5 days −3.5%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
LRN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Stride in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Other Consumer Services
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.