QualityDipStocks / Real Estate · REITs
LTC Properties LTC
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s at its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 7% over its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $74.90+66%
- Market Value
- $42.18price +7%
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.29
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Near its high
The price is 0% below its 52-week high (Nov 2), but the business held up: net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts.
Some numbers held up (net cash (cash minus debt) 0.0% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding unchanged, operating margin 0.0 pts), others slipped. The price is 0% below its 52-week high.
The price is 0% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($45.14, Nov 2) the price assumed about 5%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($34.04, Dec 23) about 0%; today about 5%. The last 3 years delivered 10%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, 10%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $45.14Nov 2 | $34.04Dec 23 | $45.14 |
| Implied growth | +5% | 0% | +5% |
| P/E | 17.5× | 47.3× | 17.5× |
| P/FCF | 18.1× | 13.0× | 18.1× |
| EV/Sales | 8.9× | 10.8× | 8.9× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 14.5% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 12.5%; bull = 8.5% and 16.5% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LTC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 5% a year for five years; our estimate uses 14%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LTC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 1.6× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.29
- Volatility
- 21% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.17
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.27
How it ranks
Where LTC stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 3 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate66% · price below our base caseTop 17%of 1,314
- Dividends + buybacks yield4.8% · cash paid out or used to retire shares, vs market capTop 28%of 1,836
- Revenue growth, last 12 months+60% · vs the 12 months beforeTop 5%of 1,814
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $74.90 · MV $42.18 · FCF value $61.13
Assumes 14.5% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 14.5% a year FY22–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.50 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026. Net debt $737M, not deducted.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $74.90, 66% above the price.
GrowthSales grew 60% to $348M over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 63% over the last 12 months.
ValuationP/E of 17.5× vs a 25.9× median for the 80 Real Estate companies we cover.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 4.8% ($113M paid over 12 months, 84% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 77.9% in FY2025 from 94.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
Cash returnsShare count up 13.4% in a year: existing holders are being diluted.
Cash returnsDividends take 84% of earnings ($113M paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 5.6× EBITDA (limit 3×).
ValuationTrades 7.0% above its Market Value of $42.18, the average price paid since the Aug 6 filing.
All fundamentals
P/E 17.5 · FCF yield 5.5% · ROE 12%
Valuation
- P/E
- 17.5×Real Estate median 25.9×
- Price / FCF
- 18.1×
- FCF yield
- 5.5%
- EV / EBITDA
- 11.8×
- Price / sales
- 6.77×
- Price / book
- 1.86×
- Market cap
- $2.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $3.1B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $348M
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +59.8%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +14.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.80
- EPS growth, last FY
- +23.5%
- Net income, 12 months
- $135M
- Net income growth
- +63%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- n/agross profit isn't reported (common for service and financial companies)
- Operating margin
- 62.6%
- Net margin
- 38.7%
- FCF margin
- 37.5%
- Return on equity
- 12%
- Return on invested capital
- 11%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $40M
- Total debt
- $777M
- Net cash
- −$737M
- Debt / equity
- 0.61×
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $130M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +13%
- Dividend yield
- 4.79%$113M paid
- Payout ratio
- 84%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +13.4%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $9M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From LTC Properties’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $0.1B · Sales +66%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield5.5%
- Gross margin60%
- Operating margin33%
- Return on invested capital4%
- Return on equity12%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+66%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.6×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $45.14
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$34.04−24.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$42.18−6.6%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$45.14at the price
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$45.14you are here
- Fair value est.base case$74.90+65.9%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 64 · 5 days +2.7%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.70
- Year-ago EPS$0.69
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
LTC is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on LTC Properties in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in REITs
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.