QualityDipStocks / Telecommunications · Telecommunications Equipment
Lumen Technologies LUMN
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 59% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well below our fair value estimate, 17% under its Market Value.
Worth knowing
- FCF yield 17%, top 2% of the 1145 we measure
- #11 furthest below its fair value estimate of the 1314 we value
From the data on this page, as of the last close. How we pick these
- Fair value est.
- $13.21+173%
- Market Value
- $5.81price −17%
- Off 52-wk high
- −59%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.49
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Repriced or dip?
Repricing: business changed
The price is 59% below its 52-week high (Nov 3), but the business held up: operating margin +5.3 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +81.3% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less.
Some numbers held up (operating margin +5.3 pts, net cash (cash minus debt) +81.3% of market cap since the high, shares outstanding more shares, each owns less), others slipped (revenue −6.8%, free cash flow −31.7%). The price is 59% below its 52-week high.
The price is 59% below its 52-week high, and the business changed too: revenue −6.8%, free cash flow −31.7%.
Within 10% of its 52-week high, so there is no dip to judge yet.
The evidence 9 numbers, high vs now
- Revenue, last 12 months$12.7B → $11.8B (−6.8%)changed
- Revenue growth rate−4.6% → −7.7% a year (−3.2 pts)about the same
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.2B → $837M (−31.7%)changed
- Operating margin−3.6% → 1.7% (+5.3 pts)held up
- Shares outstanding+0.8% (more shares, each owns less)held up
- Net cash (cash minus debt)+81.3% of market cap since the highheld up
- Stock vs its sector (Telecommunications)stock −59%, sector median −6% since Nov 3changed
- Price fall vs business numbersprice −59%, revenue/EPS/FCF median −19% (shown, not scored)
- Valuation multipleP/FCF 9.6× at the high → 5.8× now (shown, not scored)
Business numbers as reported at the high (12 months to Sep 30, 2025) vs the latest filing (12 months to Jun 30, 2026). Each measure is scored from −1 (business changed) to +1 (business intact) and weighted: revenue, earnings per share, free cash flow, operating margin, revenue growth rate, share count, net cash and the move vs its sector. 60 or more reads as a dip, 40 or less as a repricing. Analyst estimates are not in our data, so they are not used. How to read it
Data-based read, not advice.
Priced in
How much growth the market assumed at the 52-week high, the low and today (a reverse DCF).
At the high ($11.83, Nov 3) the price assumed about −6%/yr free-cash-flow growth; at the low ($4.43, Oct 26) about −16%; today about −15%. The last 3 years delivered −40%/yr (free cash flow).
Dashed line: what the last 3 years delivered, −40%/yr (free cash flow)
| High | Low | Now | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price | $11.83Nov 3 | $4.43Oct 26 | $4.83 |
| Implied growth | −6% | −16% | −15% |
| P/FCF | 9.6× | 5.3× | 5.8× |
| EV/Sales | 2.1× | 1.3× | 1.4× |
What this means: the higher the implied growth, the more the price already counts on. If today's number sits well below what the business has delivered, the market expects less than its track record.
How it’s computed
Reverse DCF: the same 10-year free-cash-flow model as our fair value estimate (9.5% discount rate, growth for years 1–5 fading to 3% by year 10, 3% after), solved for the growth that makes it equal the market value at each price. For the high and the low we use only the filings that were public on that day, so nothing from a later report leaks back. Market value = that close × diluted shares. P/E = market value / 12-month net income; Price / FCF = market value / 12-month free cash flow; EV / Sales = (market value + debt − cash) / 12-month revenue. Hidden when the share count moved over 20% (split, merger), free cash flow is negative, or the company reports in another currency.
Valuation
What we estimate it's worth, and how it ranks on value vs every stock we cover.
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is below even the bear case.
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, LUMN’s free cash flow would need to shrink about 15% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 31 to Nov 2, 252 sessions). Beta = how much LUMN moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.8× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.49
- Volatility
- 74% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.43
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.45
How it ranks
Where LUMN stands vs every one of the 1,996 stocks we cover that has the number. Longer bar = better.
Top quarter on 2 of 5 measures
- Discount to fair value estimate173% · price below our base caseTop 1%of 1,314
- Free cash flow yield17% · free cash flow vs market capTop 2%of 1,391
- Revenue growth, last 12 months−7.7% · vs the 12 months beforeLowest 3%of 1,814
- Operating margin1.7% · of sales kept as operating profitLowest 16%of 1,288
- Return on invested capital1.6% · profit per dollar of capitalLowest 12%of 838
From SEC filings and our fair value estimate model. A ranking, not advice.
Valuation details
DCF $13.21 · MV $5.81 · FCF value $51.20
Cyclical / peak cash flow — treat with care
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -10.8% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.83 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 4, 2026.
Fundamentals
The business itself: sales, profits, cash and debt, from SEC filings.
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 17.3% (price / FCF 5.8×): $837M of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to −6.5% in FY2025 from −65.8% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $13.21, 173% above the price (cyclical or peak cash flow, so treat with care).
ValuationEV/EBITDA of 5.6×: modest for what the business earns before interest, tax and depreciation.
ValuationTrades 16.9% below its Market Value of $5.81, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest only 0.2× over the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityLost $1.0B over the last 12 months (net income, SEC filings).
Balance sheetNet debt of $11.3B, 234% of the market cap (Jun 30, 2026).
GrowthSales shrank 11% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; sales down vs the year-ago quarter; net debt 5.2× EBITDA (limit 3×).
All fundamentals
FCF yield 17.3% · Sales −8%
Valuation
- P/E
- n/aloss over the last 12 months
- Price / FCF
- 5.8×
- FCF yield
- 17.3%
- EV / EBITDA
- 5.6×
- Price / sales
- 0.41×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $4.8Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $16.2B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $11.8B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- −7.7%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −10.8%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- −$1.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- −$1.0B
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 47.8%
- Operating margin
- 1.7%
- Net margin
- −8.7%
- FCF margin
- 7.1%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 2%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.9B
- Total debt
- $13.2B
- Net cash
- −$11.3B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 0.2×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $837M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −11%
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +1.0%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $57M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Lumen Technologies’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
The business
FCF $2.1B · Sales −9%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$2.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield17.3%
- Free-cash-flow margin18%
- Gross margin48%
- Operating margin−3%
- Return on invested capital−3%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)−9%
- Net debt / EBITDA5.2×
Chart & levels
Where the price is vs its key levels and trends.
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $4.83
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$4.43−8.3%
- PriceMon Nov 2 close$4.83you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$5.81+20.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$11.83+144.9%
- Fair value est.base case$13.21+173.5%
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 43 · 5 days +9.0%
Signals
Reversal signal setups, the public ledger and the next earnings date.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Next report
Nov 4
- DateWed Nov 4, after the close
- Consensus EPS($0.16)
- Year-ago EPS($0.20)
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
LUMN is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 332 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.
Voices & buzz
Who is talking about it, and how it compares with peers.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Lumen Technologies in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 3, 1:01 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Telecommunications Equipment
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.