QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Microchip Technology MCHP
Outside our quality screen, so we don’t track its dips. It’s 25% below its 52-week high.
Outside our quality screen, trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $31.98−59%
- Market Value
- $76.02price +2%
- Off 52-wk high
- −25%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 2.17
3 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $77.34
- Fair value est.base case$31.98−58.7%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$49.02−36.6%
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 6$76.02−1.7%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$77.34you are here
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$102.92+33.1%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MCHP’s free cash flow would need to grow about 19% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MCHP moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 3.9× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 2.17
- Volatility
- 50% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.55
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.61
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 3 of 5
Cash returnsFree cash flow grew 53% over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before.
GrowthSales grew 21% to $5.1B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
Cash returnsDividend yield of 2.3% ($985M paid over 12 months).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $31.98, 59% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 10.4% in FY2026 from 33.7% in FY2024 (SEC filings).
ValuationP/E of 115.9× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
GrowthSales shrank 18% a year from FY2023 to FY2026.
QualityDoesn’t pass our quality screen: ROE under 12% and ROIC under 10%; net debt 3.5× EBITDA (limit 3×).
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Microchip Technology in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 115.9 · FCF yield 2.6% · ROE 6%
Valuation
- P/E
- 115.9×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 38.3×
- FCF yield
- 2.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- 32.4×
- Price / sales
- 8.31×
- Price / book
- 6.60×
- Market cap
- $42.6Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $47.7B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $5.1B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +20.9%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −17.6%/yrfrom FY2023
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $0.68
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $367M
- Net income growth
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 60.2%
- Operating margin
- 15.5%
- Net margin
- 7.2%
- FCF margin
- 21.7%
- Return on equity
- 6%
- Return on invested capital
- 6%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $272M
- Total debt
- $5.4B
- Net cash
- −$5.1B
- Debt / equity
- 0.83×
- Interest coverage
- 3.7×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +53%
- Dividend yield
- 2.31%$985M paid
- Payout ratio
- 268%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.1%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $278M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Microchip Technology’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $31.98 · MV $76.02 · FCF value $48.78
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -17.6% a year FY23–FY26; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $2.02 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 6, 2026. Net debt $5.1B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only run on companies that pass our quality screen.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 52 · 5 days +4.4%
The business
FCF $1.1B · Sales +38%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$1.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield2.5%
- Free-cash-flow margin22%
- Gross margin60%
- Operating margin16%
- Return on invested capital6%
- Return on equity7%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+38%
- Net debt / EBITDA3.5×
Next report
Nov 5
- DateThu Nov 5, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.82
- Year-ago EPS$0.26
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
MCHP is outside our quality screen
One text when a published rule fires on one of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.