QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
United Microelectronics UMC
Deep dip with a setup armed: a close above $17.06 triggers it. 40% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $10.46−37%
- Market Value
- —
- Off 52-wk high
- −40%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 1.87
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $16.68
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$7.02−57.9%
- Fair value est.base case$10.46−37.3%
- Stopreference, not an order$16.27−2.5%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$16.68you are here
- Triggerclose above fires the setup$17.06+2.3%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$28.01+67.9%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.3% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.3%; bull = 8.5% and 5.3% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, UMC’s free cash flow would need to grow about 12% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much UMC moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 5.1× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 1.87
- Volatility
- 65% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.37
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.50
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
Balance sheetOperating income covers interest 27× over.
ValuationPrice / book of 3.7×, below the 7.1× median for the 149 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 3.9%, above the 3.1% median for the 161 Technology companies we cover.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 40% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
SetupA capitulation-reversal setup is armed: a close above $17.06 triggers it, with a reference stop at $16.27.
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $10.46, 37% below the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 18.5% in FY2025 from 26.0% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityGross margin narrowed to 29.0% in FY2025 from 34.9% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 5% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ProfitabilityReturn on equity fell 6 points in two fiscal years, to 11% in FY2025.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on United Microelectronics in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 33.2 · FCF yield 3.9% · ROE 11%
Valuation
- P/E
- 33.2×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 25.7×
- FCF yield
- 3.9%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 5.65×
- Price / book
- 3.67×
- Market cap
- $41.2Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $7.3B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +2.3%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −5.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $3.27
- EPS growth, last FY
- −17.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Net income growth
- −17%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 29.0%
- Operating margin
- 18.5%
- Net margin
- 17.0%
- FCF margin
- 21.9%
- Return on equity
- 11%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $3.4B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- 27.4×operating income / interest
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $1.6B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- n/an/m: free cash flow a year ago near zero
- Dividend yield
- n/ano dividend payments tagged
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- n/ano quarterly diluted share count
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Dec 31, 2025; balance sheet at Dec 31, 2025. From United Microelectronics’s SEC filings, reported in TWD and converted to US dollars. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $10.46 · FCF value $628.90
Assumes 3.3% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 3.3% a year FY23–FY25), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $0.65 a share (fiscal year to Dec 31, 2025, converted from TWD at 0.03071, 5 shares per ADR), from the 20-F filed Apr 30, 2026. Capex: purchases of property, plant and equipment (from the filing).
Setup & signals
Armed · trigger $17.06
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 27 · 5 days −11.7%
The business
FCF $68.5B · Sales +26%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$68.5B
- Free-cash-flow yield150.8%
- Free-cash-flow margin26%
- Gross margin32%
- Operating margin21%
- Return on invested capital8%
- Return on equity20%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+26%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.5×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when UMC fires a reversal signal
One text when a published rule fires on UMC or any of the 333 quality companies we track: the ticker, the price, the stop and a link to the numbers. Nothing else.