QualityDipStocks / Technology · Semiconductors
Astera Labs ALAB
In a deep dip: 46% below its 52-week high.
A quality company trading well above our fair value estimate, 17% under its Market Value.
- Fair value est.
- $46.56−82%
- Market Value
- $311.47price −17%
- Off 52-wk high
- −46%
- Risk vs market
- Highbeta 3.99
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $258.70
- Fair value est.base case$46.56−82.0%
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$100.27−61.2%
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$258.70you are here
- Market Valueavg paid since Aug 4$311.47+20.4%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$483.02+86.7%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 15.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 13.0%; bull = 8.5% and 17.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price is above even the bull case.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, ALAB’s free cash flow would need to grow about 49% a year for five years; our estimate uses 15%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much ALAB moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Swings much more than the market, and its own price swings are 7.7× the S&P 500’s.
- Beta vs S&P 500
- 3.99
- Volatility
- 99% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- 0.52
- Correlation QQQ
- 0.63
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
GrowthSales grew 98% to $1.2B over the last 12 months vs the 12 months before (SEC filings).
ProfitabilityOperating margin widened to 20.3% in FY2025 from −25.5% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales compounded 120% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
ValuationTrades 16.9% below its Market Value of $311.47, the average price paid since the Aug 4 filing.
TechnicalA company that passes our quality screen, now 46% off its 52-week high (deep dip).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $46.56, 82% below the price.
ValuationP/E of 128.4× vs a 33.9× median for the 138 Technology companies we cover.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield is just 0.6% (price / FCF 171×), so the price leans on future growth.
RiskSwings hard: beta 3.99 vs the S&P 500 and 99% yearly volatility (SPY 13%).
RiskReports earnings Nov 3 (consensus EPS $0.83): results can move the price sharply and reset Market Value.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Astera Labs in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Semiconductors
All fundamentals
P/E 128.4 · FCF yield 0.6% · ROE 26%
Valuation
- P/E
- 128.4×Technology median 33.9×
- Price / FCF
- 171.4×
- FCF yield
- 0.6%
- EV / EBITDA
- n/aD&A or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Price / sales
- 39.46×
- Price / book
- 27.48×
- Market cap
- $47.4Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $1.2B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +98.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- +120.2%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $2.03
- EPS growth, last FY
- n/afewer than two years of diluted EPS
- Net income, 12 months
- $369M
- Net income growth
- +269%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 75.1%
- Operating margin
- 22.8%
- Net margin
- 30.7%
- FCF margin
- 23.0%
- Return on equity
- 26%
- Return on invested capital
- n/aoperating income, debt, equity or cash not tagged
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $1.3B
- Total debt
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Net cash
- n/acash or debt not tagged in SEC data
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $277M
- FCF growth, 12 months
- +32%
- Dividend yield
- 0%
- Payout ratio
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Buybacks, 12 months
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Share count, 1 year
- +2.9%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- $195M
Trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026; balance sheet at Jun 30, 2026. From Astera Labs’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $46.56 · MV $311.47 · FCF value $35.93
Assumes 15.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew 120.2% a year FY22–FY25; capped at 15%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $1.51 a share (trailing 12 months to Jun 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Aug 5, 2026.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. We watch it daily for our three reversal signal rules while it sits in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 38 · 5 days +0.6%
The business
FCF $0.3B · Sales +104%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$0.3B
- Free-cash-flow yield0.6%
- Free-cash-flow margin23%
- Gross margin75%
- Operating margin23%
- Return on invested capital12%
- Return on equity26%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+104%
- Net debt / EBITDA−0.4×
Next report
Nov 3
- DateTue Nov 3, after the close
- Consensus EPS$0.83
- Year-ago EPS$0.26
- QuarterSep/2026
From Nasdaq’s earnings calendar. A report resets Market Value.
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
Get a text when ALAB fires a reversal signal
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