QualityDipStocks / Consumer Staples · Tobacco
Altria Group MO
Not in a dip: trading near its 52-week high.
A quality company trading below our fair value estimate.
- Fair value est.
- $86.12+10%
- Market Value
- forming
- Off 52-wk high
- at the high
- Risk vs market
- Lowbeta −0.54
5 bullish · 5 bearish See why
Key levels
Every level vs today’s $78.03
- 52-wk lowlowest close, 1 year$54.72−29.9%
- 52-wk highhighest close, 1 year$78.03at the price
- PriceFri Oct 30 close$78.03you are here
- Fair value est.base case$86.12+10.4%
Fair value estimate
How the range is computed
Ten-year free-cash-flow DCF. Same 10-year free-cash-flow model as the base: discount rate 9.5% ±1 point and growth 3.0% ±2 points. Bear = 10.5% and 1.0%; bull = 8.5% and 5.0% (both fade to 3%). A model estimate from public filings, not a forecast of where the price will go.
Price sits inside the range.
What the price implies To be worth today’s price, MO’s free cash flow would need to grow about 1% a year for five years; our estimate uses 3%.
Risk vs market
How risk vs market is measured
One year of daily returns (Oct 30 to Oct 30, 252 sessions). Beta = how much MO moved for each 1% move in the S&P 500 (SPY); 1.0 moves with the market. Volatility is the yearly standard deviation of daily returns. Past behavior, not a forecast.
Has moved mostly independently of the market, but its own price swings are 2.1× the S&P 500’s (it moves on its own news).
- Beta vs S&P 500
- -0.54
- Volatility
- 27% vs 13% SPY
- Correlation SPY
- −0.26
- Correlation QQQ
- −0.39
Bull vs bear
Rule-based from the data on this page, strongest first. Not advice.
Top bullish points 5 of 5
ValuationOur DCF fair value estimate is $86.12, 10% above the price.
ProfitabilityOperating margin of 47% over the last 12 months.
ValuationFree-cash-flow yield of 7.0% (price / FCF 14.4×): $9.1B of free cash in the last 12 months.
ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital of 44%, above the 9.5% discount rate our DCF uses.
Cash returnsDividend yield of 5.5% ($7.1B paid over 12 months, 88% of earnings).
Top bearish points 5 of 5
ValuationP/E of 16.1× is 57% above its own average of 10.3× at the last 3 fiscal year-ends.
GrowthDiluted EPS fell 37% to $4.12 in FY2025.
ProfitabilityOperating margin narrowed to 42.5% in FY2025 from 47.2% in FY2023 (SEC filings).
GrowthSales shrank 2% a year from FY2022 to FY2025.
Cash returnsDividends take 88% of earnings ($7.1B paid over 12 months), leaving little to reinvest or raise the payout.
Who’s talking about it
Notable investors, executives, analysts and public figures on Altria Group in the last 48 hours. Headlines as published, each linked. Their words, not ours.
No notable mentions in the last 48 hours. Checked Nov 1, 9:09 PM ET.
Compare with peers
Closest in size in Consumer Staples
All fundamentals
P/E 16.1 · FCF yield 7.0% · Sales +0%
Valuation
- P/E
- 16.1×3-yr-end avg 10.3× · Consumer Staples median 21.7×
- Price / FCF
- 14.4×
- FCF yield
- 7.0%
- EV / EBITDA
- 13.4×
- Price / sales
- 5.54×
- Price / book
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
- Market cap
- $130Bprice × diluted shares
- Enterprise value
- $152B
Growth
- Revenue, 12 months
- $23.5B
- Sales growth, 12 months
- +0.5%vs the 12 months before
- Sales growth, 3 yrs
- −2.5%/yrfrom FY2022
- Diluted EPS, 12 months
- $4.85
- EPS growth, last FY
- −37.0%
- Net income, 12 months
- $8.1B
- Net income growth
- −8%12 months vs before
Profitability
- Gross margin
- 63.3%
- Operating margin
- 47.0%
- Net margin
- 34.4%
- FCF margin
- 38.6%
- Return on equity
- n/anegative shareholder equity
- Return on invested capital
- 44%
Balance sheet
- Cash & short-term inv.
- $2.7B
- Total debt
- $24.1B
- Net cash
- −$21.4B
- Debt / equity
- n/adebt or equity not tagged in SEC data
- Interest coverage
- n/ainterest expense not tagged in SEC data
Cash flow & returns
- Free cash flow, 12 months
- $9.1B
- FCF growth, 12 months
- −1%
- Dividend yield
- 5.46%$7.1B paid
- Payout ratio
- 88%
- Buybacks, 12 months
- $1.0B0.8% of market cap
- Share count, 1 year
- −0.7%diluted shares vs a year ago
- Stock-based comp
- n/anot reported in its SEC filings
Trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026; balance sheet at Sep 30, 2026. From Altria Group’s SEC filings. Sparklines show up to six fiscal years. n/a means we don’t hold that number, with the reason. How each is computed.
Valuation details
DCF $86.12 · FCF value $138.01
Assumes 3.0% growth for 5 years (revenue grew -2.5% a year FY22–FY25; floored at 3%), fading to 3%; 9.5% discount rate, 3% terminal growth. FCF base $5.43 a share (trailing 12 months to Sep 30, 2026), from the 10-Q filed Oct 29, 2026. Net debt $21.4B, not deducted.
Setup & signals
No setup armed
No setup armed, so there’s no trigger or stop to track yet. Reversal signal rules only arm once a company is in a dip.
Momentum & 52-week range
RSI 70 · 5 days +5.0%
The business
FCF $9.1B · Sales +4%
- Free cash flow, 12 months$9.1B
- Free-cash-flow yield7.1%
- Free-cash-flow margin44%
- Gross margin72%
- Operating margin60%
- Return on invested capital45%
- Sales growth (latest quarter vs year-ago quarter)+4%
- Net debt / EBITDA1.8×
Information only, not investment advice. Fair value estimates and talking points are rule-based model output from public data and can be wrong; stop levels are reference points, not orders. How every number is computed.
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